Asymptotically what you said might be true, but before it gets there years might pass as they did in China. It's not clear how long this madness would last if not for COVID.
Asymptotically what you said might be true, but before it gets there years might pass as they did in China. It's not clear how long this madness would last if not for COVID.
I don't think the Chinese real estate market will ever truly "recover" to the Tulip Mania levels it hit before. Especially with a declining population.
That is what, 15 years and counting of waiting for the market to return to affordability despite using more concrete every 2-3 years throughout this time than the US did in the entire 20th century?
To quote Kimberly Wilkins: ain't nobody got time for that
Now, inevitably, the pendulum went the other direction - people lost money and companies went bankrupt.
You can't play fast and loose like that with such a basic need as housing.
https://en.macromicro.me/series/5433/china-housing-price-to-...
Considering the absolute number houses in China were not affordable at any point in recent history.
2010 is often cited as a reference point, most likely because it's when the Chinese stock market started experiencing a slump despite the initial post-2008 recovery, so investments shifted into real estate:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2592/shanghai-composite-index-ch...