SpaceX's monster IPO is unlike anything we've seen

So we're calling this a SpaceX IPO, but what's actually going public is SpaceX + xAI + whatever X is this quarter. The rockets are a real business. The AI side is a giant GPU bill and a story. Feels less like a normal IPO and more like Musk rolling a bunch of experiments into one very expensive ticker.

The kindest thing we can say about SpaceX is that Falcon 9 is the best run space launch operation ever. But is it profitable? Are those five-year lifespan satellites really assets? Do they generate enough cash flow to be replaced or was that all funded by capital raises along the way? And now Elon has stapled his third rate AI and zombie social network to the rockets.

Because of the way it's structured with a tiny float compared to the valuation, I wouldn't bet against the IPO at the target price. The IPO will raise enough money to keep things running for another year. But it's not a big raise especially relative to the burn rate.