> "decades of overinflated engineering salaries"
'Overinflated' relative to what? You make some good points but I don't accept this as a premise.
'Overinflated' relative to what? You make some good points but I don't accept this as a premise.
Median senior SWE salaries in SF: https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/senior/loc...
Median income in metro areas: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/11/the-median-salary-for-the-25...
Engineering salaries are significantly higher than nearly every other industry on average and on median. Much of this is driven by VC funding rather than sound, profitable, bootstrapped businesses with sustainable profit margins.
Engineering salaries have also been driven upwards significantly the past ~10 years (since the post-2008 crash recovery), while wage growth in the US is mostly stagnant. I don’t have a source handy for that, but there are plentiful studies.
Outside of the US this may be less true, but I took GP’s “most of us on HN” to mean people who work in US tech companies which are primarily concentrated in high COI areas.
now compare the profit per employee at tech (software engineering) companies and those industries..
But there are thousands if not tens of thousands where the profit per employee is minimal or negative.
I can’t find a source for all tech (the data wouldn’t exist for private firms anyway) but I think it’s telling to look at this list, scroll down to about the middle and look around at salaries you or your colleagues are pulling. Software revenues are certainly high but the industry is afloat because of these high margin businesses creating returns so that low margin businesses can exist. Without the massive infusion in upfront capital, very uncommon in other industries, it’s simply not sustainable.
Typically a market that’s buoyed by its top performers but has significant amounts of capital tied up in under performers is called “a bubble”.
There was a surge in demand for SWEs and scarcity brought salaries up. Are them too high? Hell no. On average, my colleagues and me generated ~2M$ each in 2025 for our company, while we get payed a fraction of that (grants and bonuses included). If you look at net income per employee we are at around 700k each in 2025.
Additionally, employers try their hardest to drive costs down (eg. offshoring as much as possible, everyone doing layoffs at the same time, ...) and average/median salaries remained high. If the salaries were overinflated those numbers should have came down I believe. The fact that they didn't makes me think that it still is a scarcity problem not an overinflation one.
So by that logic, housing in coastal cities also aren't "overinflated"? After all, like SWEs, they're they're also scarce and in demand. They're also providing enormous value to the people buying/living in them, otherwise they'd be living in Oklahoma or whatever and paying a fraction of the cost.
Is the same on the job market? I don't think so. I never heard any SWE saying "let's scare people away from a CS career so we can bargain for higher salaries". The opposite is true though. Companies participate in career fairs, pre-uni events to make people gravitate towards a CS careers, ... so with a higher supply each employee loses a bit of bargaining power.
Small excursus, this very fact was taken to the extreme in 2022 when everyone did layoffs at the same time despite the numbers being still great. If you put 300k people on the street at around the same time you can hire some of them for way less money as they now lost all leverage (since there are other 299.999 people waiting in line for a job).