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Comment by jazzypants | Hacker News Reader

At this rate, I can't see the petrodollar surviving another decade. Great job, Republicans.

I mean, the US has proven itself irresponsible having the power it has had as a superpower. Endless wars for oil, an economic bully instead of a responsible steward of power. This is the best outcome, a slow decline of power as the world reorganizes around the US. Americans voted for this, this was a choice.

Yeah, it's hard to weep for American hegemony when it has mostly been used as a crude cudgel, but it's just a bit odd to watch an empire rapidly crumble in real time from the inside through such a shocking series of unforced errors.

There's something to be said about the fact that those who shout the loudest about "America First!" are the very same ones to blame for its inevitable demise.

Feels like being on the sidelines (or a Roman, if you're American) during Honorius' reign.

Exactly. I don't think this is a purely Republican issue. It's a US Empire and its hubris issue. The only difference is that Trump has been open with things that would otherwise have been said and discussed behind closed doors.

Obama had a nuclear deal with Iran. Trump ripped it up. This is not a "both sides" issue.

My comment wasn't isolated to just the Iran issue.

Not just Obama. It was also the UK, France, China, Russia, Germany, and the EU that had a nuclear deal with Iran.

Trump ripped it up over the objections of all of them.

I think it is a primarily Republican issue. They have consistently demolished anything of value in the US, and now, the world (unnecessary Iran war is reducing global GDP growth by ~0.3% and boosting inflation by ~1.2%). Unfortunately for them, the damage to their brand is done for a generation. Very similar to Reform and Brexit in the UK.

Agree that the Republicans caused the recent escalations. But I think ultimately the US was heading in that direction, and Trump is just accelerating it.

I agree with you - the US having less power is a good thing, and I welcome it.

It’s increasingly apparent to me that even when it’s not the republicans, it’s still the republicans. Eg education and how incredibly stupid many otherwise good, lovable and loving people are. They cheer for growing the population AND suppressing them so that they can extract their votes.

It’s so blatant and so disgusting.. and yet the realization has no effect. Just like when the church pedophiles were exposed (literally next door) it had no effect whatsoever on their congregation.

Human patterns are disappointing.

As an outside observer (of some decades), the US Democrats are enablers of the Republican / MAGA excesses.

They haven't pushed back hard enough against Citizen's United, the obvious creeping threat of the Federalists takeover of the judicial pipeline into the Supreme Court; the criminal conviction of a POTUS was left to slide, and the list goes on.

Things like properly independant election oversight, district boundary setting (no party partisan gerry mandering), and a host of other boring details matter to keeping a democracy clean and fair.

I’m not saying I think this for sure, but it feels like there’s a world where most countries come out of the Trump presidency stronger except the USA.

what's the alternative?

The Euro and the Yuan are the clearest contenders. Iran already trades oil in euros.

euro doesn't have enough volume. yuan has very strict domestic price controls so its a weird risk to take. (you could get insta-fucked, way harder than dollar inflation mismanagement, if china suddenly allows its citizens to move money)

This is why I said "decade" and not a shorter time frame. We're in the midst of some extraordinary times where things will shift quickly out of pure exigency. It's pretty clear that nothing can replace the dollar overnight, but most of the classic arguments in favor of it (stability , American military, etc.) are rapidly becoming obsolete.

This stuff is already happening. American Dollars have fallen from 66% of world currency reserves in 2016 to 56% last year and it's still going down. [0]

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petro...

If the water merchant in the desert wants to charge in blowjobs, people going to starting giving blowjobs. 30% Hormuz oil is not short/medium term substitutable, if Iran can enforce (big if) Petro yuan then we get Petro yuan. USD already demonstrated proven instafuck instruments, the limitation of Petro yuan id access since most have trade surplus with PRC who isn't going to print because they don't want reserve/triffin drama. They'll likely do something like panda bonds, i.e. vip trusted loans because petro yuan =/= reserve where everyone qualifies, much better system is only buyers PRC trusts gets access.

if yuan goes oil denominated and appreciates in value, China's manufacturing advantage from low labor prices evaporates and china knows this. things are already bad in china due to low demand (workers burning factories since they are not getting paid -- look up "brother 800")

Currency appreciates due to printing / supply. Hence I specifically highlighted petro-yuan =/= reserve currency. PRC not going to be brrrrting yuan to replace USD liquidity. PRC simply going to extend yuan swap lines to trusted petro-yuan users, it's not going to fuck with reserve triffin dilemma.

Thing are fine in PRC, exports higher than ever, some sectors getting shafted vs others, but strategic ones, i.e. not low end textile like brother 800 but intermediary goods doing better than ever. BTW side effect of high oil prices is PRC coal to petchem stack for industry just give 2/3 of PRC industry 50% input discount vs everyone else. Now global demand going to fall if high energy price persist, but PRC poised to capture more share simply being even more competitive producer, if not only producer with regular/prioirty access to hormuz energy.

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