"any day now"
Gotta love this argument. Top it off by saying anyone skeptical is a fool, because of course.
Gotta love this argument. Top it off by saying anyone skeptical is a fool, because of course.
If we had access to AGI today, we'd just find novel and interesting ways to ignore it, enslave it, gimp it, and/or bias it.
The last major advancement was probably GPT3, af least if we are talking about the LLM companies, the ones involved in the current data center boom.
After that was we experienced were marginal improvements of the same technology. Yes, the current models are better than what OpenAI put out at the time of ChatGPT 3, but none of it was revolutionary (and the gains have been less and less perceptible in newer versions).
We might be as far from AGI as we were in 2022. I think we are multiple revolutions in technology away from it.
The models themselves may not need to be that much smarter than what we have now. You can make up for a lack of IQ to some extent if you wrap a control loop around a relentless machine.
There were people that dismissed the Internet as a fad. There were people that dismissed Cryptocurrency as a fad. There were people that dismissed NFTs as a fad.
I think LLMs are very useful in some contexts, somewhat useless in others, and I think agentic models are highly overrated. Too unreliable to be left by themselves. We are a few revolutions away from that changing, I think.
But that, too his hypothetical. What I didn't do is call you a fool for your hypothesis.