I Think Software Development Will Be Automated by 2030

blog.vtemian.com

1 point·vtemian··4 comments

Let's say it will be.

Who will then define, debate and hold standards/regulations/norms, then? and adherence to those standards, as well as the legal responsibility that comes with it?

What happens when a totally automated software is the main cause of the destruction of private property, or the death of even one single person?

Who is going to answer for these? (that is, pay, fix and possibly go to jail)

How are those legal consequences going to pressure the automated development industries to comply to safety/control rules?

It will all collapse well before that given that it is sucking existing value out of society rather than making new value.

If models could take over all meaningful work there would be nothing left for humans to do but war.

I think the flaw in this argument is that these AIs are plateauing.

Researchers are finding new ways to get these AIs to do more things, to generalize their application, but I do not think the actual usable, general intelligence they can use to do those things is growing substantially.

They are amazing tools, but AIs need more-general intelligence to fully automate software development, and that will require different AIs, not more Terawatts.

I don't punch a single punchcard by hand, and nobody does. Doesn't that mean we're already fully automated?

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