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What the hell are you talking about? If you actually placed bets by nate silver you could make quite a lot of money.

The number of outcomes is very high on a parlay bet like this.

One way to look at is that there were only about 6 states that could go either way, so he picked 6/6.

In other words he, with confidence, called a 1 out of 2^6 coin toss...

That either takes massive balls, or he was actually on to something.

What I mean is that if you put 100 random people and a room, and explain the likely outcomes to them, its reasonable to expect that each of those outcomes is chose at least once.

There was not anything wildly unexpected that happened, and therefore his predictions being correct seems unspectacular.

Gaining traction with unspectacular predictions in the spectacle of politics is spectacular.

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