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Comment by happytoexplain | Hacker News Reader

We have "very comprehensive data and statistics" indicating that US aviation is not nearing collapse? I don't understand what you mean.

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He means that anyone making an argument that aviation safety has deteriorated should be using the stats to back it up, instead of anecdotal evidence.

+1 but this is The Atlantic so having a reasonable expectation would keep you sane.

This is a common kind of "data or nothing" fallacy. Data doesn't reliably capture evidence for the thesis "TSA agents and aviation workers are burning out and ICE is going to make it worse". The part that data is good for hasn't happened yet over a long enough timeline to reflect properly.

If the argument is "deadly accidents are up over the past decade", then yes, of course, we must point to data.

If the argument is, "the aviation industry might be on the verge of a steep decline in availability and/or safety due to recent political/financial problems", then what do you mean "show the data"? That doesn't make sense. It's a concern based on observation, which is fine if it's not presented as a fact.

And if it turns out that a specific accident is due to said forces - what, we don't address those forces, because "data"?

I agree, but the article does specifically mention crashes as a symptom we're already seeing:

> Fatal crashes, overstressed controllers, and endless security lines reveal a system teetering on the brink of failure.

I have not read the entire article (paywalled), but the introduction sure seems to strongly imply that we're already seeing an unusually high rate of crashes.

I think they mean they would prefer more rigorous statistical analysis.

"Rigor cleans the window through which intuition shines" - Ellis Cooper

"Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution though, so you'd still to apply judgement in any case. I suppose it's a word with many definitions.

> "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution though

Uh? Maybe you could explain what you mean by this a bit more.

1. It's not a rigorously defined term.

2. "System collapse" would be unexplored territory, so how would statistical analysis be able to infer when it occurs?

1. Not really. If the crash rates we're seeing under the Trump administration are higher than any similar length period in the last ~10 years, we should start to worry.

2. See above.

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