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Comment by pclowes | Hacker News Reader

I still strongly feel all layoffs to date have much more to do with interest rates than AI. This may change but I am deeply skeptical of massive RIFs being caused by AI at this point.

Look up FRED data in Interest Rates, SWE job postings over time and then look at the stock price of one of these companies claiming “AI layoffs” over the same time frame (eg. Block). Then read reports of 0 discernible AI impact to US GDP in 2025…

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I feel like game dev is an entirely different market to the typical startups. Different investors, different talent, different marketing and market validation. Those who invest have already made their money in games (or "gaming"). The SDLC of an average Steam game is very waterfall.

Fair but almost everything in almost every industry is downstream of interest rates. Capital allocation gets much harder in a 7% market than a 2% market.

> almost everything in almost every industry is downstream of interest rates

This is a very "if you exclude the best and most robust parts of the economy, everything looks terrible!" sort of comment haha

services industries don't contract nearly as much as manufacturing during interest rate rises, see 1980-82 recessionary period

everyone in finance correctly regards entertainment industry as more robust during high interest rates (and the macro environment high rates respond to), that doesn't mean buying Disney is a good trade (it's not). two separate issues.

> I still strongly feel all layoffs to date have much more to do with interest rates

Really, interest rates? Not the change in the law that made it illegal to treat software developer salaries as a business expense?

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