Iran launched unsuccessful attack on UK's Diego Garcia
bbc.com
bbc.com
* I think this is the longest-range use of a ballistic missile in anger, possibly ever?
* This seems to reveal previously-unknown range of Iranian ballistic missiles and, if true, could touch basically all of Europe?
This launch demonstrates that if the answer to both of those questions is still no, they can still place them at threat.
> previously-unknown
It was implied by Iran's space program.
There's a reason most regional powers also invested in a space program as well as a civilian uncles program. The name of the game is dual-use technologies.
The Biden admin also warned about Iran-NK collaboration on building these kinds of capabilities [0]
[0] - https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-officia...
I know its just a typo but lol'ed so hard
True but they have also literally launched multiple orbital satellites from iran on iranian rockets. Eg. The Noor 2 spy satellite and before that the Noor 1 series https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noor_2_(satellite)
These are in orbit to this day. They regularly post images it takes of US military bases. Essentially it’s similar to how sputnik was a demonstration of icbm capability. Iran can launch a first generation ICBM right now. Pointless if they use a conventional payload (too small payload to be cost effective militarily) and a non manoeuvrable warhead (would just be intercepted) and so these aren’t used militarily but essentially everyone acting shocked they can hit 4000km range was not paying attention.
I think one of the problems we are having right now is that we have leaders who actively believed the downplaying of Irans military capabilities. It’s one thing for the common civilian to think the enemies missiles are made of cardboard and tanks of paper but it’s another when the leader of a nation believes it. Now here we are with a war that’s stalemated and no way out.
Intercepted? In the UK, by what? London has no missile defence system that I am aware of.
We've been hinting about these capabilities for decades [0]. A lot of what is being brought up now is stuff a number of us touched on during the Obama years.
None of this is really hidden either - it would be brought up in think tanks and even undergrad classes if you attended a target program.
Civilian leaders have always had a hands-off approach to Defense and NatSec policy - once you show them how close to a polycrisis everything is they quickly defer responsibility. It's actually pretty similar to working in a corporate environment - it's all about managing upwards.
[0] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...
That might not work with the current administration. Which probably a/the problem.
There hasn't been significant churn in the NatSec space aside from political appointees, and core policymakers like Doshi, Maestro, Allison, Colby, and even Hill have worked with administrations irrespective of party affiliation.
Not really. What we're seeing today is similar to what was being discussed in 2010 [0]. Heck, this failed missile attempt confirms capabilities that were being discussed in 2010 [1].
[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2010/4/22/us-iran-strike-stil...
[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...
Even from a racist perspective that's completely wrong; Iranians are white, the name "Iran" literally means "Land of the Aryans".
The Indians were also Aryan according to race theories. I wouldn't put much sense into racism
The history (and pseudoscientific justification) of racism is mind-boggling as ever.
Agreed, but it’s not at all surprising to me. Propaganda means that people will project fictitious motives and capabilities on their opponents, even if they are internally inconsistent (e.g. Iran must be attacked because they will threaten the USA mainland vs Iran’s missiles are very inaccurate and barely hit anything).
Was that the problem?
The US handling of the situation seems the elephant in the room.
Iran has done precisely nothing unexpected in the entire course of this war. Closing Hormuz has been mooted since the 70s. And its IRBM stockpile has been known. This is more a case of something between political leaders and possibly the media being ignorant of even open-source intelligence.
It also expected a quick intervention, 2 weeks max.
The President is a political leader.
The 12 days, and 2 weeks is what I recall most. But reality is what we want to see and hear. Some would say we are at week 4. Some that we are ending week 3.
Reason would be to accept we are taken for fools anyway. Or worse, run by fools.
It's just another case of history - endlessly - repeating.
The Wikipedia article has said they had missiles that can range 4300km since 2019 (as in the article was updated in 2019) https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Shahab-5&oldid=91... . If Wikipedia has known about it for 7 years, surely military planners were already aware.
Of course, there is a significant gap between Iran possessing the capability, having the temperament to use it, and actually doing so.
This was sidestepped by allowing the Poland-SK defense partnership to kick off in 2013 [0] which was further entrenched in 2022 [1], and itself acted as a message against North Korea for acting in a similar manner with Iran [2]
[0] - https://www.president.pl/archives/bronislaw-komorowski/news/...
[1] - https://www.irsem.fr/storage/file_manager_files/2025/03/nr-i...
[2] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...
Diplomacy was working fine, per high-ranking diplomats: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/18/americas-...
Yeah, what's it about peoples of the third world that they're always fanatical, that they're always out to destroy the first world... https://theconversation.com/orientalism-edward-saids-groundb... / https://archive.vn/HoEk5
Iran is also oddly moderate from the region (beyond the whole death to America thing).
Loved your link, but I doubt it is going to change anyone who thinks Israel and US are doing the god's work here.
I mean they hate Israel way more than us and they never attacked them either (until this war obviously). And regime change was already happening there slowly. They would have become more moderate, the public opinion inside Iran was more and more against them especially since what they did to the protesters.
This war was unnecessary and only cemented the regime's hold on their people by giving them an external enemy.
Iran has sponsored, built and trained organizations all over the middle east so they could destroy Israel: Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and groups in Iraq are all proxies propped up by Iran.
Iran was the first to attack Israel, this happened in 2024 when Israel killed Nasrallah (Hezbollah) and Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles directly at Israel.
Iran hates the US way more than Israel, but Israel is closer so obviously they are directing their efforts according to what's plausible. Iran calls the US and Israel "the big satan" and "little satan" in almost all internal communication. Just a couple of weeks ago the entire Iranian parliament chanted "death to America" and "death to Israel" (you can see the videos online). Iran had US flags laid out on the floor of their facilities so that anyone going by will walk over the US flag.
Despite being very uncomfortable, the war is probably necessary because as seen by Iran's attack on Diego Garcia, they have way longer range than previously thought, they have a deposit or military grade uranium enough for 10-12 bombs, they were completely dishonest about their nuclear programs, and waiting until Iran had nukes meant you couldn't ever stop them. You'd have another North Korea but ten times worse, as the Iranian regime is truly a fundamentalist insane leadership. Trump may be unhinged but he's right about Iran using nukes if they had them.
United States, a fundamentalist fanatic country: https://bsky.app/profile/gregsargent.bsky.social/post/3mhgag...
The nuclear armed violently psychopathic state in the Middle East that still lies about nukes is the one that must be attacked not the country that allowed all audits of their nuclear program. We should conduct an operation to decommission or transfer in safe keeping to a neutral power all of Israel's illegal nukes and impose crippling sanctions on them for their lying on this extremely serious matter.
Such as? Ambiguity (or not sharing information) isn't a lie.
You tell me, if Iran, Hamas, and (insert other groups you hate) played games about nukes and told you they "don't" have nukes despite having hundreds how would you feel?
Israeli nukes must be brought under audit and transferred or decommissionied urgently by neutral third parties, it is a very grave matter.
Again do you have some sort of example or evidence?
> your country
I'm not Israeli
> the countless "execptions" it claims for itself
What exceptions? They don't need an exception to an agreement that they never consented to.
> played games about nukes
It's not much of a game, they just don't divulge sensitive information about their capabilities.
> transferred or decommissionied
Why would Israel give up a means of defending itself, while several of its neighbors continue trying to wipe it off the map? The only way this becomes plausible is if Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis stop trying to destroy Israel.
>It's not much of a game, they just don't divulge sensitive information about their capabilities.
Nobody is expecting them to divulge any intelligence about its nuclear weapon systems. Why do Israel supporters always exaggerate and invent things not said by anyone? We ask Israel to simply be subject to similar audits of its nukes as Iran was, being like Iran and several other countries in that region a volatile and violent country. Illegal nukes in such a country should be a subject of concern.
And suppose Iran walks out of NPT, I have a feeling you'd still want to interfere and bomb their attempts at making nukes. So please do not lie that it is anything about the NPT.
>Why would Israel give up a means of defending itself, while several of its neighbors continue trying to wipe it off the map? The only way this becomes plausible is if Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis stop trying to destroy Israel.
Who said I want Israel to give up its means of defence? I only wish for them to be subject to standard audits and inspections.
>Why would Israel give up a means of defending itself, while several of its neighbors continue trying to wipe it off the map? The only way this becomes plausible is if Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis stop trying to destroy Israel.
Israel's origin is a long and complex story. No entity in that region is blameless, Israel included.
Again, you tell me, if Iran, Hamas, and (insert other groups you hate) played games about nukes and told you they "don't" have nukes despite having hundreds how would you feel? Obviously they would not wish to divulge sensitive information about their capabilities.
What would be illegal about them? Israel never agreed to the NPT.
> Nobody is expecting them to divulge any intelligence about its nuclear weapon systems.
Even if Israel could trust a group of foreign auditors not to leak any military secrets, what information would you hope to gain from the exercise? Confirmation that Israel does have nuclear weapons, which we already know in practice anyway?
> you'd still want to interfere and bomb their attempts at making nukes
Only as long as a regime with an official stance of "Death to America and Israel" is in charge.
I am neither Israeli nor Iranian. They can bomb and kill each other all they want as long as they don't involve anyone else. And they will continue bombing and killing each other as they are both driven by the classic cause of endless wars: religion and nationalism. I do not think one side better than other. I considered Israel mildly better but I had to change my stance. Being that I am not a fan of either country, I would prefer either Israel's nuclear capabilities be incapacitated or Iran develop nuclear capabilities as a balancing factor.
I take it you’re quoting some random individual? Certainly no Israeli leaders said anything of the sort. The Iranian regime’s leaders on the other hand are quite explicit about their ambitions of destroying the US and Israel.
> this war was started by Israel and America unprovoked
Israel has been attacked with over a hundred thousand Iranian rockets and drones in recent times. If that isn’t a provocation, what is? How many Iranian rockets do you expect Israel to tolerate before finally responding?
Are you sure about the timing, who started shooting who first?
I am not a big fan of basically any country in that region, Israel while better in some respects eg lgbtq is also more paranoid and psychotic in other aspects.
> Greater Israel expansionism is something Israeli leaders including Bibi constantly say. Israel wants Lebensraum.
The reality is that Israelis don't care about ancient maps, they care about the terrorists operating in Lebanon that have been bombarding them for years.
> Israeli's are just experiencing for the first time
Not at all. Israel was attacked by five armies the day after it declared independence, and has been attacked many times since, including regular rocket attacks over the past ~25 years.
There is discrepancy between what Vanunu said and what the government of Israel said. Evidence points to Vanunu being truthful, thus naturally, the Israeli government are liars.
Again do you have a particular statement in mind?
I don't follow the news very well, but from what I know the claim that you make isn't very obviously true but needs some evidence for it to stand.
They've already gotten one concession in terms of this temporary sanctions relief, even as Trump frames it as a domestic emergency measure and repeatedly declares total victory each day of the conflict. They also got him to back off on targeting their power plants by promising to retaliate in kind against the power infrastructure of US aligned states in range.
I think the US has the ability to beat Iran in a fight, but it does not have the preparation or the resolve to do so at this time, because this is some halfcocked nonsense plan with amorphous goals that they thought would be over in a week.
The only people wanting to continue this war are the U.S. and Israel (and maybe Saudi Arabia?) and even Trump is clearly looking for an off ramp.
This is most likely a way for Iran to tell Europe to do what they can to end this otherwise they will drag Europe into this mess as well.
Also it's not like EU and UK actually have any military capacity to bomb Iran even if they wanted because again everything they do have is going to Ukraine already.
The war is extremely bad for business for Saudi Arabia and has already cost them enormous amounts of money. It is causing damage to their oil refineries that will take years to repair.
The only person who gains anything out of this is Netanyahu and his friends. Everyone else loses, including the Israeli people.
There is some chatter that crown prince supported and approved the assassination of Khamenei and possibly supplies supportive intelligence.
They haven't been exactly friendly with Iran.
The odd ball is Qatar. Qatar had been working hard to have friendly relations with Iran. So I was surprised by Iran's attack on Qatari interests.
According to journalists, it was Saudis who have been trying for a long time to convince Trump to attack Iran.
Sunni vs. Shia, there is a history there.
Just look at Trump's latest attempt to enlist his "allies" into sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz, and what a resounding success it was.
Strategically, Diego Garcia is a forward operating base for irreplaceable B-52 and B-2 bombers. Placing them at risk on the ground seems like a reckless call, more likely the US pulls those resources back to the US.
I’m not rooting for Iran, but since the US has who they have making the calls, Iran has obvious strategic cards to play - escalation benefits them.
your conclusion: US will pull those resources back?
but, what are you saying? it would be weird for iran to act in a way that might provoke escalation? you mean in the totally unprovoked war israel/america launched against them?
Iran has had IRBMs for some time. Demonstration doesn’t hurt. But demonstrating failure doesn’t particularly help either.
This question has long been answered
And yes, hitting offices with American financial institutions or hotels with American soldiers in them is fine.
> It is understood the attempted air strike occurred before the UK agreed to let the US use British military bases to hit Iranian sites targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/middleeast/us-b2-bombers-dieg...
To be clear, I'm not saying I support any of this Iran nonsense from Trump. I am very much against him meddling in the ME.
They’ve been doing this across the region. Some of this looks like individual commanders taking strategic decisions into their own hands. But it’s absolutely false that neutrality has protected anyone in the region.
The fact that we have to pick out a single neighbour they haven’t attacked sort of lands the point.
How about now?
Sure, if you’re Turkmenistan or Afghanistan, the latter which is being bombed by Pakistan, you’re fine. Also if you’re Azerbaijan, fuck you.
What’s the argument? Like, Oman was trusted by parts of Tehran on diplomatic matters. They still got bombed. Trying to rationalize this is untenable—it was a stupid strategy of throwing toys out of the pram.
Azerbaijan does intelligence cooperation with Israel, against Iran, so it's not a neutral party.
Oman, also shares their facilities to the US military.
I didn't hear the neighbouring countries complain when Iran got attacked economically/financially and then later military.
Not exactly the behaviour of a fair neighbour.
No. Azerbaijan hosts no U.S. bases. Also, the Gulf hosts U.S. bases in part to protect against Iran. Blowing up hotels while missing American warships underlines why Iran is a shit neighbor.
Israel on the other hand has a history of not being so.
They’ve given mixed messages. You see the new talking points being echoed down thread [1].
> Iran has been quite conscientious about taking responsibility
There is no singular Iran. The President apologized. Then the IRGC hit more targets in neutral nations. (Again, unless we use the new definition of neutrality which means everyone is an enemy.)
Yes there is no one central command, but in spite of that whoever is doing the shooting in Iran has been conscientious about taking responsibility.
I find this believable because Azerbaijan has not been hit again as compared to other neighbouring Arab nations.
They attacked the UK in Cyprus at the start of the war back when the UK refused to allow any of it's bases to be used by the US. Stop spreading propaganda.
Iran is showing the world (especially Europe), that it's more vulnerable than it thinks. Europe has more skin in the game than just the price of oil and nitrogen. Also think about what would happen if Iran is able to recreate something like the Cuban missile crisis now that we've moved a bunch of our military assets to the middle east.
Why time the medium range missiles now? It seems like yet another own-goal for this desperate and poorly coordinated regime.
IRGC are bullies and now the USA has shown us that the IRGC is perfectly happy to bully the whole world. Time for them to go.
They attacked Iran not the other way round. US bases, even if also used by UK which aides US it their war, are legitimate targets.
US imperialism is the greatest threat to the world.
Iran is more united than ever because of the imperialist war. That is what you get when you turn state leaders into martyrs.
And there is no way for anyone to know what Iranians actually think now. No one does the polls there now.
There are massive protests in favor of the Republic every day. You can not deny the evidence.
IRGC has a lot of support. We tend to think of educated Iranians from abroad. But they have their share of religious nutters.
They’re being razed by domestic forces. Think of every Redditor who wants to see revolution.
Now that is no longer an option, so their resolve to get that weapon will be ten fold what it was three weeks ago.
You underestimate your foes at your peril, do not underestimate Iran or the Iranian people, they had an advanced culture when the West did not even exist. The fact that they're stuck in religion is the main item that is holding them back from really taking over the region. But there are plenty of countries in the West that have a bit of a religious problem so even on that front you can't point fingers.
> their resolve to get that weapon will be ten fold what it was three weeks ago
They’ll probably get it. I’m almost convinced we’ll see the Middle East or Europe get nuked in our lifetime. Tehran hits Tel Aviv; the latter hits every major city or something.
> I’m almost convinced we’ll see the Middle East or Europe get nuked in our lifetime.
There is a good chance of that, and the last 3 weeks have made it much more likely that that will happen.
> Tehran hits Tel Aviv; the latter hits every major city or something.
That is possible. There are multiple possible nuclear flashpoints, Russia vs one of their neighbors, Pakistan vs India or the other way around, Israel vs Iran or the other way around, the USA because Trump has a bad hairday against pick-your-target.
Of all the parties that have nukes I figure China, France and the UK are the most stable.
Which is an impossibility. We're talking about a military force of more than a million religiously fervent men that have martyrdom as a core tenet of their religion. They are not going anywhere, and assasinating their leaders and bombing their bases will not make them easier to enforce anything on.
My home country has more than 90M people and 40% of that equates for millions of supporters.
From the outside, you are only hearing the diaspora talking points, which don't realistically represent Iran. Many of them have grievances with the regime, or have been exiled after the Shah.
Iran is a complex country and it's hard for outsiders to grasp it, mainly because the censorship happening on both sides.
I personally think this war was a major mistake, no Iranian is going to cheer for US or Israel after watching their children being killed by them. The west was doing a good job exporting liberal ideas to Iran slowly over the past 3 decades. Some of those were starting to drip into the country, but this war undid all that effort.
US and Israel don't give two fucks for the people of Iran. If they did they wouldn't have been under such crippling sanctions.
Irani people want to control their own destiny, not as a vassal of US-Israel backed power.
Iran's best bet I think is to negotiate with the IRGC to earn reforms. I suspect that if IRGC doesn't feel so threatened they might even get them.
There's a lot of commentary here along the lines that Iran is now a threat to Europe. Yes the capability might exist but it is not in Iran's interest and have never shown such interest or ambition. India certainly has missiles that can reach parts of Europe, capability does not signal intent.
US and UK have screwed the relation up by organising coup, scuttling democratic processes, downing domestic passenger jet without apology, setting Saddam Hussein and his chemical weapons at them and the economically ravaging them with sanctions.
As for nukes, with Israel and undeclared nuclear power right next door, it's a very reasonable ask for any country that wants to control its own destiny. In fact had it had one, the current conflict would not have happened.
Sobering, and (speaking as an American) all too familiar here at home.
Cults suck.
They're willing to sacrifice the rest of us, just like the mullahs. As long as other people are hurting more, MAGA is happy to sacrifice whatever is asked of them.
It's a literal cult. To understand that, all you have to do is imagine a Biden, an Obama, or a Harris saying and doing the things Trump has said and done in the last 30 days alone. "Some of you may die, and gas prices may go up for a while, but that's a chance I'm willing to take. Oh, also, Imma need 'bout $200 billion, kthx."
It's a transaction: they'll pay more for gas for a month to feel strong and powerful. That's a good exchange. They feel like they're winning. But there's no way they're putting their life on the line for anything.
So no, it's not a sacrifice. If they were to lose their position of strength they'd roll over in a second. Not just the followers but the leaders too. I mean imagine if Hegseth or Trump was captured by Iran. They would shit their pants give them anything they want. Anything to get back to their comfortable bed. Because they have zero principles. You don't need priciples if you're not being tested. That's why bullies bully, because they think there are no consequences.
In Iran's defence, in spite of being attacked repeatedly with chemical weapons, not once have they retaliated with chemical weapons. This is in line with their beliefs which was formalized into a fatwa by the late Khamenei against nuclear weapons.
I would call that taking a pretty principled stand at a time when it would have been very tempting to redefine them.
Do you know what Khomeini did to his fellow leftist who toppled the Shah?
As complete strangers they were invited into their homes to share dinner with family, with much post dinner merriment and singing and dancing. Note, my people were complete strangers to them, foreigners too. Some of my people were young men, they giggle and blush telling stories they were approached openly by women, no burqa in sight. These people still try to stay in occasional touch to this day.
Yes (many).
Yes. Also what US planted Shah's SAVAK did to his political opponents.
So what was your point again that you were presumably making, if any at all.
Ah I see. You took a random shot hoping it would stick and silence. Tsk tsk.
Maybe you are new here, those things don't work so well around here.
All Iranians reading this on HN, thank you for your generosity and hospitality. No one can top yours, seriously. Americans are generally friendly people, but Iranians really hit hospitality and show of heart out of the park.
This whole war is a continuation of the Oct 7 attack on Israel by Iran's proxies. It's been revealed recently that Israel took the decision to assassinate the leader of Iran soon after Oct 7 in retaliation. It just took a few years to find the opportunity to do so.
Oct 7th was planned by Hamas, specifically Hamas in Gaza.
It is obvious that neither Iran nor Hezbollah knew about the date or they would have coordinated their attacks. In fact Iran did not seem very happy about October 7th because they didn't want the escalation.
It's basically bait for WW3, and luckily so far the EU particularly are not biting.
The underlying reason is too many people will readily believe that if someone died for something it means it's worth fighting for, and this has been abused by strategists for a very long time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conf...
Iran is only a threat because the US and Israel decided it was time to murder some Iranians.
The US and Israel are more of a threat to the entire world.
Iran has been funding murderous militias like Hezbollah , Houtis and fighting a proxy war for years.
The US started all this with the 1953 coup in Iran, and Israel was from its inception an extremely aggressive and expansionist country.
It didn't have to be this way but they decided this to turn into a fight of survival for Iran and destroy any option for a peaceful resolution. Now they are going to pay the price.
We in the West, well we are aiding the US in this war by allowing it to operate from military bases in our countries. We deserve it for looking the other way while Israel has been mass murdering Palestinians for more than two years now.
At least Spain showed some guts.
Of course it will also potentially cause suffering in the global south but that is on those that started the war.
Maybe there have been further attacks today that I missed but if true that would be an huge escalation.
My last information was that China has no problem getting oil but that was like two days ago.
The rebuilding was referring to the destruction of Iranian infrastructure in general. The oil is still getting exported.
The sad part is how the genocide in Gaza could have been prevented:
Imagine an alternate history, in which successive precedencies didn't turn a blind eye to Iran, imagine a decade ago (regardless of democrat or republican administration) that they decided to do what they are doing today in Iran. Iran wouldn't have had the funds and resources to sponsor Hamas and Hezbollah. The populations in Gaza and Lebanon wouldn't have been sandwiched between the projected powers of Israel and Iran. Their power structures could have been legitimate democracies etc. In that world there wouldn't have been a reason for Israel to attack and invade, and even if they did in this alternate history, the rest of the world would have strongly condemned it to the point of military intervention on behalf of Gaza / Lebanon.
Always take not how a faction has risen to power initially. In the case of Iran's regime it was hostage taking. A faction will very often resort to the same tactics and methods it used during its initial ascent to power, a form of survivorship bias.
If the West hadn't let the situation of Iran rot indefinitely for decades (they even systematically rewarded the regime's behavior by systematically giving in to the hostage politics it conducted, in my opinion they should have just drawn a line and said: return these hostages unconditionally or we treat this as hiding behind a human shield).
Hezbollah came to be as a resistance group against the invasion of Lebanon by Israel.
The reason both Hamas and Hezbollah exists is because Israel.
There can not be peace in the region as long as Israel exists. They are a settler colonial state build and sustaining itself by the dead bodies and suffering of the Palestinians.
> the rest of the world would have strongly condemned it to the point of military intervention on behalf of Gaza / Lebanon.
That is completely delusional.
I Iran had fallen ten years ago, there would be no Palestinians anymore. No one would have stopped Israel from killing them. Israel would have annexed South Lebanon, part of Syria, Egypt and so on and created Greater Israel.
As you probably already know, my point was that it's a bit callous to focus on "this war is expensive and inconvenient" while innocent people are, you know, dying.
And let us not act like the decades of sanction were not designed to do exactly this. Sanctions mean you create as much hardships as possible for the people in hope they topple their government. They nearly never work but here we are.
> Contrary to popular belief, economic sanctions are ineffective in fulfilling their objectives. Historical observations from Russia to Cuba and Iran reveal that the more sanctions are designed to pressure the ruling class, the harder ordinary citizens are hit. Leaders often perceive sanctions as a means to enhance nationalism, portraying the United States and its allies as hostile. In many instances, such actions have only strengthened their hold on power while stifling dissent internally.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yljdgwppzo
As for the protests, the truth is also that these were not peaceful protests. Mossads agents had been arming people and instructing them to riot. Hundreds of police offers have been murdered and mosques have been burned down. Mossad agents have been instructed to fire at protestors to increase the death toll.
Yes, there has been valid criticism and unhappiness with the government. But most of these people had been protesting for economic reasons. They didn't want to see their country invaded.
Today many of the people that had protested in January are joining the mass demonstrations in favor of the Islamic Republic. The war has united the Iranians.
Source?
> “Foreign actors are arming the protesters in Iran with live firearms, which is the reason for the hundreds of regime personnel killed,” wrote Tamir Morag, the diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Channel 14, during the uprising. “Everyone is free to guess who is behind it.” Morag and his network are well known for their close ties to Netanyahu.
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-ministry-of-intelligence...
You also find the some information in a Israeli Newspaper:
> On December 29, what is dubbed the Mossad X/Twitter account in Farsi encouraged Iranians to protest against the Iranian regime, telling them that it is literally physically with them at the demonstrations.
> “Go out together into the streets. The time has come,” the Mossad wrote. “We are with you,” it added. “Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.” [...]
> Foreign actors had armed Iranians to help them fight against the regime’s forces being used to crack down on and oppress protesters, Channel 14’s Tamir Morag reported Tuesday. Iran’s foreign minister retweeted the report for his own agenda.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-883524
See also interview with Prof. Marandi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-tcwcon30M
He claims the a nurse was burned alive in a clinic by rioters.
All according to the numbers confirmed by Iranian government.
God, the moral depravity of defending the IRGC and islamic regime is mind boggling. You can still be against Mossad and what they do in Iran while holding the islamic regime accountable for its own atrocities.
So, how many have been killed in those two days of massacre exactly?
A credible source please, and "killed", not "accused of killing", "allegedly killed" etc.
I was following this news in real-time at that time. One thing I noticed was that media outlets started killing/withdrawing many of their stories.
That made me mighty suspicious.
Worth adding that the regime claims around 3000 were killed while not allowing any independent investigation and also completely blocking the internet for days and arresting reporters. Mighty suspicious indeed.
But that is besides my point. Even if we go with the regime's number and compare it with the casualties of the war (2), you can get a picture of the scale of the massacre compared to an actual war against US freakin army!
1. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2026/01/what-hap...
2. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/us-israel-attacks-on...
This feels far too much like Iranian government propaganda to be plausible.
It would be very surprising if they didn't. Heck FBI was doing it to citizens at one point, during war against terror.
Let me even quote an Israeli newspaper:
> On December 29, what is dubbed the Mossad X/Twitter account in Farsi encouraged Iranians to protest against the Iranian regime, telling them that it is literally physically with them at the demonstrations.
> “Go out together into the streets. The time has come,” the Mossad wrote. “We are with you,” it added. “Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.” [...]
> Foreign actors had armed Iranians to help them fight against the regime’s forces being used to crack down on and oppress protesters, Channel 14’s Tamir Morag reported Tuesday. Iran’s foreign minister retweeted the report for his own agenda.
Any credible source for this?
1. Western media is not credible because West treats Iran as enemy
2. Iranian media is not credible because they obviously want to hide facts when they're negative
Now my question is, why are you spreading unverifiable information as something credible and building your facts on top of it?
For tens of thousands? No. That’s the upper end of estimates. For the brutality? Yes. Wikipedia is a good start.
As I said, West considers Iran as enemy, used words by BBC reflects this clearly.
1. "accused of" - we don't know, but lets say they're "accusing" them
2. if true, then they have killed the "police officers" (seems many?) so what do you expect from Iran?
>36,500 killed in 400 cities... Our Editorial Board has now obtained more detailed information provided by the IRGC Intelligence Organization to the Supreme National Security Council.
they are an Iranian opposition outfit funded but the Saudis. (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601255198)
There are zero verified sources of any mass killings by the Iranian government. In fact all evidence points to Mossad agents committing the mass killings of Iranian government officials as caught on video, including the wrestler that was just executed for killing a police officer with a machete, on video.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Supreme Leader
Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi – Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces
Major General Mohammad Pakpour – Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC
Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh – Minister of Defense
Mohammad Shirazi – Head of Supreme Leader’s military office
Ali Larijani – Senior national security chief
Esmaeil Khatib – Minister of Intelligence
Gholamreza Rezaian – Iranian police intelligence commander
Gholamreza Soleimani – Basij paramilitary commander
Saleh Asadi – Head of military intelligence at Khatam‑al Anbiya
Has there been any other war in which one side so quickly killed the leadership of the other side?
It is clear the initial aim was to decapitate the leadership and expect capitulation of some form or another to follow. This obviously hasn't happened, and so the fallout grows by the day.
It is really not an accomplishment to murder someone in their own house when they have not been hiding.
Khamenei was already very old.
His security begged him to evacuate but he asked them if they can evacuate all Iranians. If they can't why should he get special treatment?
He knew he could serve his country best by becoming a martyr.
Meanwhile Israeli leader Netanyahu is so afraid to come out of his hole that people are wondering if he is still alive.
A win is a win. Irrespective of whether the enemy’s fuckup put it on a silver platter for you.
> He knew he could serve his country best by becoming a martyr
And taking down his inner circle with him. Brilliant man.
We like to think we're winning, but are we ? Iran leadership is supposedly decimated, missile capabilities destroyed etc. And yet, when Israel attacked their gas field, they immediately wiped out 17% of Qatari gas productions capacities which will take 5 years to rebuild and they could have wiped out everything. Seems their leadership structure is doing just fine.
As for all the killed - what did we actually achieve ? Replace Khamenei with his son - a guy who had all of his family blown up to pieces by US / Israeli ? That should do wonders to Iran's future relationship with those countries.
Only places that falsely believed to be immune due to being of same blood, like Qatar.
>Replace Khamenei with his son - a guy who had all of his family blown up to pieces by US / Israeli
Rumor has it son was also blown up, just not completely (supposedly disfigured with leg missing) and is most likely hiding in Moscow.
This doesn't change the fact that Iran is the aggressed party in an invasion of an incredibly aggressive US-Israel axis that seem to revel in death.
You can hate the Iranian murderous regime, and also understand that it is fighting against another evil, murderous regime.
You would prefer to tell people in Iran who oppose the regime to take up arms (which they don't have) and fight IRGC soldiers with better training and more resources?
Best case, if they did, Iran would end up in a situation like Syria. Would that be an improvement?
More likely, it would simply be a massacre.
Let's not pretend that the US and Israel regimes have the best interest of the Iranian people in mind. They want murder.
Edit: and even people celebrating in Iran itself, which seems incredibly brave.
"videos posted on social media showed joy and defiance elsewhere, with people cheering as a statue was toppled in the city of Dehloran in Ilam province, dancing in the streets of Karaj city, near Tehran in Alborz province, and celebrating in the streets of Izeh in Khuzestan province. In the town of Galleh Dar in southern Iran, people knocked down a monument commemorating Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who founded the Islamic Republic in 1979, a video on social media showed."
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/polarised-ira...
Even The Guardian, as anti-Trump as a source can be, reported that "videos shared widely on social media also showed people celebrating, dancing, honking car horns and setting off fireworks as news of the leader’s death broke."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/01/celebration-or...
I am very skeptical of war propaganda. You would do well to be skeptical of it too.
Not condoning anyone but shows the priority of both sides.
Of course it will be hard to completely avoid civilian casualties in the long run, I fear but yeah Iran has been pretty measured. Iran's fight is with the US imperialists and Israel and not the people that live in the region.
Surely the US are using civilians as human shields?
That is why they constantly lie about Hamas using human shields. Every accusation is a confession with these people.
They are infamous for fulminating against liberals, plotting to kill enemies, torturing and hanging dissidents from cranes, persecuting minorities and women, funding terror cells, and fleecing their citizens to enrich themselves.
Many of the comments here suffer from a misguided refusal to be impressed by the regime's reputation, as though anyone the American establishment criticises must automatically be righteous.
You have to thank the actions of the genocidal State of Israel that anything below it is somewhat acceptable. Reaping what they sow themselves.
Israel and Iran somewhat independently came to the conclusion that they’re the regional hegemon, and that protecting that position is worth any cost.
This left Israel similar to the USA post 9/11 or Peal Harbor. On a streak to make it never happen again in a very decisive/brutal way. Hegemony wasn't the moving factor for Israel, at least until very late in the war, and due to the same reasons
Locally, yes. Iran not condemning those attacks was a fuckup.
More broadly, this is the Levant versus Persia, a power contest as old as civilization.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-stri... https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-fighters-trained...
The attack plan of October 7 is generally so similar to the attack plan prepared for Hezbollah by the IRGC, that it is not surprising it is one and the same.
That's why Israel in this current conflict early on made moves on Iran and why the end game is this war.
> More broadly, this is the Levant versus Persia, a power contest as old as civilization.
Wasn't it more, Egypt and Greece vs Persia while the Levant was rapidly conquered?
People always ask here why the community flags every post on these issues. Comments like this are why. Hardly anyone on this site knows even basic information on the nations involved.
If I were in charge of HN, I'd geoblock anyone from commenting on the Middle East who isn't at an IP from the Middle East. I wouldn't be able to comment either, but at least there might be enlightening information in the comments.
That said, the first page of any reputable history on Iran/Israel relations would go over 1979, when Israel went from friend of Iran to foe, based on Khomeini's interpretation of Islam.
This one was just this week: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-execution-teen-wrestler-ja...
So there's that.
The evil of your enemy does not excuse your own strategic stupidity or cruelty.
"Rights groups said the trio were executed without a fair trial and had given confessions under torture."
> The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency has recorded more than 7,000 killings, with the vast majority being protesters, while warning the toll could be far higher.
Neither CBS News nor this agency are friends of the factions you mention. Facts are stubborn things.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/15/what-is-hrana-the-u...
Iran might have at best have a self-regime change, at worst split in 3. Now that the war is on, the regime consolidated.
Before I get downvoted to hell Im not conding anything or taking any side, just pointing out an obvious deduction
If you have a problem with those laws and think our borders should be wide open, that's of course a different matter, and one you should take up with Congress, which makes the laws.
I think those laws should be changed by the way, to be much friendlier towards Hispanic immigrants. They share our cultural values and are easy for the US to assimilate in my opinion, so long as they're properly vetted for obvious criminal behavior, ability and motivation to work, etc.
Would you attack the US because they "murdered" thousands of Germans to take down Hitler in WW2?
Most of their ordinance has been intercepted. And a good fraction was unguided enough that it would have hit a school or hospital.
Already has in Azerbaijan [0] and attempted in Israel [1].
Most reporting is hyper-regional and somewhat kept under wraps (eg. Qatar and UAE are actively prosecuting leakers who are using Reddit, and have even taken control of Qatar's subreddit [2]) or reported on in regional languages.
I've found the information control in this conflict to be much more strategic/professional in comparison to what was is seen in Ukraine and Russia.
[0] - https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/06/aliyev-vows-attacks-on-a...
[1] - https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/iranian-cluster-bomb-hi...
[2] - https://www.reddit.com/r/qatar/comments/1rt2fth/timeout/
The fact Israel has a very effective defensive system (active and passive) does not mean Iranians avoid civilian targets.
Literally all Israeli casualties were civilian.
Your comment made me realize international media doesn't care to even publish this, leading to this incredibly skewed view.
I'd edit my previous comment but I can't.
So every time allied militaries protect their schools and hospitals by intercepting missiles, drones etc from Iran, you give credit to Iran?
I think it’s more that these attacks are counterproductive to Iran’s state goals, which reveals that we’re seeing a hardline faction in Iran use the war as cover for consolidating power.
Certainly not by lives lost, damage done, or dollars embezzled. Not by interference in other countries, or apocalyptic rhetoric.
So, what exactly is your opinion based on?
By the fact that Trump hasn't killed thousands of people to stay in power. Pretty simple really. Protesting the US government is still legal. Protesting the Iranian government in Iran will get you killed.
Oh? How many do you think he has killed?
How many people have died so far because of Trump's aid to Israel?
How many people have died because of the cuts to USAID?
How many Iranians has Trump killed? How many Iranian children? ... Compare to, how many Americans did the Iranian government kill?
How certain are you that the conditions in the Iran protests weren't provoked by US and Israeli provocateurs? ... Why?
What's your explanation for Trump directing Lockheed Martin to ramp up production of interceptor missiles months before assassinating Iran's leader during negotiations? Months before the protests used as a fig leaf of justification?
> Pretty simple really.
Idk man. Is it? Maybe thinking Trump is a better person than the leader he helped assassinate is too simple.
> Protesting the US government is still legal. Protesting the Iranian government in Iran will get you killed.
Protesting the Israeli government in the US can get you thrown in a concentration camp and deported. That's pretty weird, no?
Even during the last admin, protesting the Israeli government could get you fired, or attacked by riot police.
Does the moral high ground of not murdering protesters give you the right to arm and enable genocide? To murder leaders while pretending to negotiate with them? To bomb schools?
It reminds me of that old joke:
> A KGB spy and a CIA agent meet up in a bar for a friendly drink. "I have to admit, I'm always so impressed by Soviet propaganda. You really know how to get people worked up," the CIA agent says. "Thank you," the KGB says. "We do our best but truly, it's nothing compared to American propaganda. Your people believe everything your state media tells them." The CIA agent drops his drink in shock and disgust. "Thank you friend, but you must be confused... There's no propaganda in America."
And that's only gotten more true every decade since. I don't see the US ever reaching the level of discourse where we question our 'allies' atrocities the same as [latest boogeyman]'s. And taking any accountability for our own war crimes? Not a chance. We'll invade anyone who tries (see the Hague Invasion Act).
At least when it comes to politics, the vast majority of the US lives on the Dunning-Kruger "Peak of Mount Stupid"; failing to clear the lowest possible bar while pointing fingers and laughing at everyone else.
All the money, all the access to information, and still that's where we're at. Weird af.
Where are you getting your news from?
People who say Iran is "crazy" or "lashing out" are falling for the most brain dead propaganda
Which is notable since it’s about the same distance from Southern Iran to Diego Garcia (3,800km) as it is from Northern Iran to London.
Now this may be a demonstration and veiled threat, on the other hand if Iran was to fire a missile at continental Europe I would hope that the consequence for them would be to be flattened, so...
Notably, the previous guy issued a religious decree against the development of nuclear weapons. Despite American's favorite propaganda tool for manufacturing consent, "but the WMDs", we have no reason to believe that was ever actually being violated. But you'd better believe it will be now if they think they can pull it off.
No-one believes that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons, either... or that they wouldn't if they had developed the capability.
This practice is known as taqqiya. It’s ok to lie if you’re deceiving the enemy.
Because otherwise you're comparing apples to mushrooms. Not even themselves kingdom.
https://unterm.un.org/unterm2/en/view/UNHQ/9626F6CEB2A92C9B8...
“ A weapon of mass destruction is a nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological, or other device that is intended to harm a large number of people”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapon_of_mass_destruction#Def...
Iran have been attacking uninvolved NATO member Turkey for a while now and nothing happens. The USA is already fully engaged into this war while Europe can hardly deal together with Russia, it is doubtful they'd do anything even if it rained down on their territory
Turkey is led by a strongman leader and these are very sensitive to acts of public humiliation. So that's unwise when thinking about any negligible strategic advantage they may gain from these attacks
To take the claims at face value, local governments that has an interest to shift blame on Israel, do not believe Iran, due to their own radar data
And where is the radar data that proves missiles were launched towards Diego Garcia, let alone from Iran? Iran BTW say this wasn't them - and as they say in advance where they'll strike, I'm more inclined to believe them than the deranged Trump, Netanyahu et al.
I was mistaken, sinking it was a claim by IRGC influence networks, not official statement. However official Iranian statements have claimed to have hit the USS Lincoln with 4 ballistic missiles, which is also an amazing lie considering these missiles accuracy and the state of the Lincoln.
Other nonsense claims apart from the "captured" US soldiers by Iranian officials is the claim of 100 dead US troops (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603051892)
My point still stands, the Iranian regime has a different standard of truth than most people. Its lies are wild and non-subtle, I wouldn't put a lot of faith on any of those.
Regarding radar data, these is the evidence countries have when approaching such a situation. You can safely assume that a country like Qatar or Turkey for example that finance Hamas, have no vested interest to believe Israel over Iran. The problem is even they have some limit to being spit on and calling it rain
Finally, if the regime does not surrender after all this, a nuke could still be used.
That’s the worlds source or revenue.
Genocidal freaks. As if Hiroshima didn't teach you anything.
If that's the US way, why are Russians the bad guy again?
The question of whether the world can assume its security on some religious rulings of some Ayatollas is still standing, as these rulings can apparently be changed or bypassed.
I don't think much of the world has processed that Iran's ostensible lack of nuclear weapons is purely a matter of will and not capability.
Can anyone blame them for considering developing nuclear weapons for real now? I can't.
in any case, these are the mythical WMDs found in Iraq:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/12/03/world/middlee...
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/world/cia-is-said-to-have...
> "These weapons were not part of an active arsenal. They were remnants from Iraq’s arms program in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war."
These are not the "WMD" that led to or had any involvement with 2003, it's dishonest to suggest so
This means there were active facilities, materials and know how even after the war
The only people saying Iran was just about to get nukes are the Israelis, who've been saying that every 5 years for the last 40 years, and the only people who fell for it are magatards
I don't understand how people fall for this shit after the Iraq war scam, which was essentially the exact same propaganda
And if you tell me that US /Israel are bombing Iran to protect rights of oppressed then I have that wonderful bridge.
Donald Trump does not care about protesters in Iran. His idea of regime change is "keep the regime and change head for someone who will pay me personally".
And Hegseth does not care either. He is proving his manhood.
And Israel have completely different goals, so.
It is not like Saudi were democrats. They have cut that journalist into pieces. They are violent dictatorship on their own right.
Are you saying that politicians should be immune if they also serve a religious role?
Don't start wars. Don't assassinate neither political nor religious leaders.
More importantly, it's pretty clear that the geopolitical rulings are, well, geopolitical in nature. Iran is a nuclear threshold state; its strategy is to come as close to the breakout line as it can and extract concessions for not crossing it. The supposed nuclear fatwa is just public relations strategy. At the point Iran decided the cost/benefit/risk/reward of crossing the threshold made sense, it would be updated.
Wikipedia has romanized: [singular] marji'; plural marāji'.
The parts I would soften are the specific claim about Sistani having a significant following inside the IRGC, which MIGHT be true but is much harder to substantiate publicly (although, maybe you have some behind-the-scenes knowledge?), and the certainty of motive. Still, your last sentence is basically right: these rulings are not _immutable_. After Ali Khamenei’s death, Iran’s foreign minister said (quoting the Reuters article), “fatwas depend on the Islamic jurist issuing them,” and added he was “not yet in a position to judge the jurisprudential or political views of Mojtaba Khamenei…” This reinforces the point that doctrine can shift if the leadership chooses.[5]
[1] Encyclopaedia Britannica, “Twelver Shi’ah.”
[2] Al-Islam.org, “Question 49: Difference between hukm and fatwa.” [3] Leader.ir, “Ayatollah Khamenei in the Eid al-Fitr congregational prayers” and “Leader’s remarks on anti-Iran sanctions and Yemen aggressions by Saudi Arabia.”
[4] Arms Control Association, “The Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program,” and ACA analysis citing the IAEA’s 440.9 kg figure.
[5] Reuters, “Iran says nuclear doctrine unlikely to change, Hormuz Strait needs new protocol” (March 18, 2026).
Can you elaborate on what kind of strikes the Ayatollah was carrying out within the old range limit?
Im really hoping they enforced those limits by not sending them IRBMs rather than sending them and ‘not letting’ them use the full range because I’m getting the sense their proxies would rather land some flashy strikes on soft targets instead of having everything swatted down over Israel.
The war of choice is really the US's Teutoburg Forest moment.
Wait a minute... Are you implying the dude who just got his dad, wife, brother, son and many other relatives killed by their arch enemies is not bending the knee?
Who could have predicted that?
the "notable distance/unexpectedly high range" quoted everywhere seems like a nice war justification: "see, they do have rockets that can threaten us!"
Supposedly this missile was hit during the boost phase over Iran, the evidence is that it was actually targeted at Diego Garcia relies on US reports.
https://labourheartlands.com/the-four-thousand-kilometre-mir...
That’s a lot of traffic
US and Israel sneak attacked Iran during negotiations that presumably were going very well.
Iran is attacking only the countries that were involved in the attacks.
I'll tell you a swifter method: rest of the world attack the US efforts and send them home. Then lock up the presidumb [sic] somewhere.
They stirred the hornets' nest. Now the rest of the world are getting stung, slowly dragging into an all-out war.
The rest of us could really use a regime change now--and it's not in Iran.
Look at Libya and Ukraine for your most direct examples - give away your nukes, get invaded. South Africa is an odd example that proves the rule: they simply bend the knee to the west.
Nuclear deterrents and mutual assured destruction has been the key driver in preventing large scale conflict in the “postwar period.”
Everyone knows Israel has nukes it’s just a matter of when they can get enough public support to use them
Significantly reduce the frequency of small to medium-scale conflicts, in exchange for an inevitable, possibly apocalyptic nuclear conflict at some point. Maybe not this year, maybe not for centuries, but one day, someone will press the button.
It's the only way to not get raped by the US whenever their supreme leader decides it's war time
Had something actually struck within the ADIZ there would have been massive implications. My guess is they intentionally failed as a warning shot.
This isn’t a random act and its quite the signal if you know what it means, Iran knows what it did here.
Unfortunately I’m not sure their current audience is gonna pick up the implied threat.
It's also a bit unreasonable to launch live munitions that have some 90% probability of being intercepted by a given system on a good day, while intending for "just a warning"
David takes a small rock and whips it at a sensitive spot on Goliath’s ankles that most people don’t know about (Diego Garcia)
David knows Goliath will probably dodge it, and most likely kick it away given it’s importance, but there’s a point being made by shooting: if it hits then that’s a win, but if gets knocked down it’s a warning that they know where they need to hit for it to hurt
Because they declared them loudly.
When they launched the drone strikes on Israel, they gave Israel and the US warning time so they could be intercepted. The second time, they gave them much less warning time.
The Iranians have a long history of negotiating loudly via their actions, which anyone who's spent any reasonable amount of time studying Iran knows and has seen in action. They're really not a mystery, they're very transparent, we just don't like what they're saying.
I don't think they did it this time, but they have in the past.
It also publicizes Iran-NK military cooperation on ballistics development, which the Biden admin warned about [0], as well as Iran-Russia military cooperation (which was obviously much less under-the-radar).
It also shows the merger of the Ukraine conflict with the West Asia conflict, and was a major reason why Fiona Hill argued we entered an unavoidable polycrisis in 2022 [1].
[0] - https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-officia...
[1] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410...
Those who they wanted to send a message to got the message, and it's a significant message up the escalation chain.
Additionally, the fact that this is being very publicly disclosed and discussed in British media in a manner that RAF Akhrioti wasn't is also a massive signal.
No that’s too easy.
Give hope to Iran / Islamic world for a few months, then take it away.