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Comment by derf_ | Hacker News Reader

I think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out immediately. Once you no longer have anywhere to put the oil, you have to start shutting down production, and it is not easy to restart. We'll be at that point in maybe another week and a half.

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Is there anyone here with a deeper understanding of oilfield geology and engineering? Given that:

- storage facilities in the region are limited and in some cases almost full

- mature oil fields need constant water injections to pump out the remaining crude

How likely is it that stopping crude extraction (and therefore the water injections) will permanently damage the oil reservoirs?

And based on that is it possible that countries with this type of mature oil fields would consider simply dumping the excess crude that can't be stored anymore in the desert or in the Gulf of Persia?

Restarting Fieldwide Shutdown for Middle East Oil and Gas Producers is Not Easy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 - March 2026

is a resource I found helpful.

2021 all over again except now we don’t even get a new president.

Or even sooner if Iran intensifies striking of storages. The whole Gulf is starting to feel like a complete write off...

There is one way that production could resume, of course: a public peace that is both real and accompanied by Iranian broadcast of orders to their coastal troops to stand down.

Given the ongoing campaign to assassinate Iranian diplomats who may be willing to negotiate peace whilst leaving hardliners alive, the only question is what kind of inducements will be necessary to get them to agree?

I don't think anything short of the US completely cutting ties with Israel would make Iran consider backing down at this point. And even then, I expect they'll continue directly attacking Israel.

Such a change given Iran was one of the few Middle-Eastern countries to approve of the UN resolution calling for the formation of Israel.

Not exactly a recent change. Since the '79 revolution Iran has had a pretty hostile position against Israel and the US. A big part of that hostility was because the US and the UK overthrew their democracy to install a puppet dictator in '53.

Indeed. Having petroleum reserves is almost always a curse. Norway seems to be the only country to have escaped unmolested.

Having anything a rich person in the US wants is a curse. We've overthrown governments for bananas and sugar. We tried to overthrow a government for cigars.

Basically the only reason Norway escaped this curse was they were next door to the USSR and the US knew fucking around there could easily land it in the USSR potentially also taking Sweden with it.

Everyone Iranian leader who is killed is post-facto named 'moderate', with very little proof of being moderate while alive.

Is this not the heart of the problem? Israel has been killing Iranians for years. Nobody can guarantee that Israel would not break a cease fire when they feel like it.

I fear that both sides are acting completely rational: Israel wants to wipe out Iran and Iran is doing whatever they can to survive.

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