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Comment by pizza | Hacker News Reader

There’s a Dark Forest problem for evals. As soon as they’re made public they start running out of time to be useful. It’s also not clear how to predict how the model will perform on a task based on an eval. Or even whether, given two skills that the model can individually do well on in the evals, it still does well on their composition. It might at this point be better to be scientific in unscientific approaches, than to attribute more power to relatively weakly predictive evals than they actually have

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I agree with your analysis but not the conclusion.

Evals are broken - OpenAI showed that SWE Bench Verified was in the training data - models were able to reconstruct the changes from memory (https://openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-bench...)

However, this doesn't mean we should completely give up on benchmarking. In fact, as models get more intelligent, and we give them more autonomy, I believe that tracking agent alignment to your coding standards becomes even more important.

What I've been exploring is making a benchmark that is unique per-repo - answering the question of how does the coding agent perform in my repo doing my tasks with my context. No longer do we have to trust general benchmarks.

Of course there will still be difficulties and limitations, but it's a step towards giving devs more information about agent performance, and allowing them to use that information to tweak and optimize the agent further

Someone else already wrote it, but it's just too funny to not abuse:

Evals are bad because people learn and fit to them. So we do extremely small evals instead.

Is "Dark Forest problem" an actual name? I just heard of the hypothesis and it has nothing to do with how you used it in this context.

I believe the correct term is "Goodhart's Law": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

I meant in the sense of - you have benchmarkers and trainers. If you publicize your evaluation, trainers may likely have their models 'consume' it, even if only indirectly: another person creating their own benchmark from scratch may be influenced by yours, even if the new question sets are clean-room. That, and the rule of thumb that benchmark value dissipates like sqrt(age) [0]

So there is a definite advantage to never publicizing your internal benchmark. But then, no one else can replicate your findings. You should assume that the space of benchmarks that are actually decent at evaluating model performance is much larger and most of the good ones, the ones that were costliest to produce, are hidden, and might not even correspond very well with the public ones. And that the public expensive benchmarks are selective and have a bias towards marketing purposes.

[0] https://www.offconvex.org/2021/04/07/ripvanwinkle/

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