> if companies reported dollars in and dollars out live to shareholders at least we would have an idea of how the company is doing in a general sense.
Goodhart's law is knocking on your door right now.
Goodhart's law is knocking on your door right now.
I'm not advocating for a single metric that can be gamed. A business is fundamentally about dollars in and dollars out. Maybe add receivables in there and a few other metrics from the P&L. I'm not trying to be prescriptive here on purely cash in and out.
I do think there is a low friction way that companies could report daily certain metrics that over time would give their shareholders a sense of the company's health and trajectory.
If a 10 billion dollar company has a per-second dollar out/in rate of $1,000,000 due to actual organic business, a company with $2,000,000 can set up an LLC it buys and sells from, and legally 'swap' $1,000,000 a second back and forth in services "bought and sold" to mimic the appearance of the $10B company, to generate business interest/confidence/investment.
That's an extreme example, but the point is that real-time money flow has nothing to do with the actual 'health' of a company.
There are so many companies like this which are just moving money around rapidly in and out with little to no actual profit. Finance sector is easily gamed.
For example, anyone can become a billionaire; just start a company, issue 1 billion shares at slightly above $1 each, keep most of them for yourself; release just 10K shares to the market and then let traders trade those same shares back and forth among themselves at high frequency... With just over $10k each, they can keep moving 10k shares back and forth 10k times per day... They call it "High frequency trading."
There you have it; now you have a billion dollar company with a healthy trade volume of $100 million per day... Your stock is in-demand! And you just needed to find two traders with just $10k in the bank and a trading platform with low fees... Becoming a billionaire is not that difficult.
You can apply the same principle to revenue... Just increase the velocity of money in and out of your company and you can hit any financial target you want.
Doesn't mean it's a solid scheme but everyone likes the numbers they're seeing. Nobody is paying attention to actual buying power.
The line between legal and illegal business transactions can be murky as hell.
Does that clarify the situation?
However it's not at all uncommon for large sales agreements to come with additional strings attached. On its face I don't see how this example is any different.
If my company wanted to barter with another company to exchange equity for infrastructure how would you expect that to be reported? Did this situation differ from that expectation?
> What if Nvidia paid more for the stock than the chips were worth?
I'm not sure. It's an interesting question. Were the unit prices (ie chip and stock quantities) made public?
As I mentioned, I would have no problem if that's what happened. But it isn't. Nvidia recorded the cash as ordinary income. They did NOT record the stock as income. Cash has a clear value; stock does not. You keep reducing the transaction to its effective outcome, which is not where the problem lies, as I outlined above.
So your objection is the way in which they did the accounting? This is not an area I'm particularly familiar with. Does the way they went about it fall outside of the norm for the US? Or is your objection a more general one regarding the US regulations on the matter?
I understand you object but I don't quite follow why. When it comes to manipulating the OpenAI valuation couldn't Nvidia have intentionally overpayed for the stock in cash? Wouldn't that have provided the exact same quantity of capital, the exact same investment, the exact same valuation?
Maybe it would be different if their GPUs weren't in such demand but they are. Even in such a case, they could have structured the transaction as a series of smaller independent ones. Same ultimate outcome.
Yes, the accounting is the problem. As I said from the outset, if they actually just traded chips for stock, it would not be an issue.
If the valuation turns out to change in the future, that's the hardware seller's risk.
It's not the same thing as buying a $20 million banana from a bahamian llc secretly owned by yourself, which is fraud.
Sure, you could inflate your numbers a bit and likely get away with it. But it's still fraud (getting away with it doesn't make it not a crime) and you will likely be caught if you overdo it.
My personal opinion? The bubble burst will make 2007ff look harmless in comparison.
But it eventually comes out, so while you can do it short-term, it's a terrible long-term strategy. Your stock will eventually crash and burn if you do too much of it.
Companies know this, thus every action they perform that affects an externally visible number is calculated both for the actual intent of the action, and how that action effects the number and the consequent market behavior.
This is why you see all sorts of moves that aren't strictly helpful for the business itself like being overly picky about which fiscal quarter certain expenses are taken in, etc. The more numbers about a company that are publicly visible, the more the company has to play this game.
Of course, visibility for traders is important for market efficiency too. But there is a balance there where you don't want to turn the functioning of a business too much into a perceived popularity game where it spends too much of its effort just making the numbers "look right" orthogonal to what's best for the business's functioning.
Companies can already make press releases whenever they want yet non fraudulent ones fail to move the market in a predicable way. If someone is committing fraud I want to know about it instantly not in 3 or 6 months. This is just a gimme to Elon's scam empire from an organization he "has no respect for".