I'd agree with that. For the elections, it's hard to rev up the base when someone points to the numbers and says you have a poor chance of winning. Rove has an editorial at the WSJ right now that's their #1 article, about how Romney has good chances to win; it feels similar to how in 2006 he claimed to have "the math" before the Republicans got their drubbing. It's almost like putting out a big name editorial like that is the last "get the base out to vote" attempt before the election, regardless of what the actual odds are. Problem is having someone like Silver running numbers in a clearly explained way that anyone can replicate, with a high measure of past accuracy, serves to debunk the efforts of people like Rove almost by default.