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Probably more like the long tail of software - software that was created for a particular purpose in a particular domain by a single person in the company who also happened to know programming - maybe just as Excel macros.

I strongly assume the long tail is shifting and expanding now and will eventually mostly be software for one-off purposes authored by people who don't know how to code, and probably have a poor understanding of how it actually works.

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Hm, yes, it makes sense. If AI "makes" software more and more composable, then yes, most software will be thin wrapper on some ancient machinery that no one understands :)

I guess in some sense this is already the case. Most developers are not "full stack" (and the job postings that describe a software MacGyver are ridiculed like clockwork), but with AI this is actually becoming more and more possible (and thus normal, or at least normalized). And of course software is eating the world, including itself, so the common problems are all SaaS-ified (and/or FOSS-ified), allowing AI-aided development to offload the instrumental dependencies.

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