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So far they have prevailed despite RADs, 4GLs, no-code solutions, etc. Software engineers have ended up using these new tools to still develop. You can already see developers embracing LLMs to create heaps of trash for fun while they learn to integrate them in their job.

It would take a huge leap forward, if not actual AGI, to fully replace Software Developers. If that's the case, they could replace any human job at any level, not just developers.

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Software engineering as a profession isn’t going anywhere, but what makes AI different from previous fads is that engineers who fail to adapt and update their skills will definitely be replaced.

That's no different from previous developments. If you refuse to work with modern programming languages, or with the web, or with a task-tracker, you're narrowing your opportunities for employment considerably.

I’m less worried about them “fully” replacing developers than what partial replacement looks like for the 95%+ of us who aren’t set-for-life, special genius devs in big tech.

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