Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slammed as oil prices surge to over $100 a barrel | Hacker News Reader

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slammed as oil prices surge to over $100 a barrel

finance.yahoo.com

21 pointsSilverElfin13 comments

I feel this is going to be a short war. The war will be settled long before the November elections. The way I see it, there's going to be a "deal" and the administration will call it a win, "THE BIGGEST WIN EVER!" But I'm an optimist at heart. Keep calm. Think hard before you make a move.

Why do you feel this way? Did you also feel Iraq would be a short war? After all it was really no trouble gaining air superiority and replacing any nominal authority with our own.

I’m totally open to theories of how America and the world at large will recognize a new Iranian leadership, but as is the strategy seems to be “create a power vacuum and pray”

The administration has said that they don't want regime change so that leaves just about anything as a win for the US. I see a big push to destroy the nuclear weapons material and capabilities. Once that's done, the US is out. It's a hard goal but it's the shortest way out.

Well, the news is reporting that the US is going to deploy a third carrier to the Middle East. Will it really be a short war? Or will it take a long time to destroy the remaining elements of the regime on the ground?

It's going to be a short time until we see the newest version of the "Mission Accomplished" banner, I'll give you that. But the length of the war depends more on the power groups that rise up in Iran's wreckage. We don't seem to be helping up any friendly group, so that's not giving me much hope.

“Be greedy when others are fearful.”

How does one trade on this news when the market will just open with a big leap downward?

Buy the dip. Not investing advice. The world will either end or this is temporary and volatility will revert to the mean eventually.

As a trader, I would say don't buy just yet. Wise ole traders warn: "don't try to catch falling daggers. Wait until they stick in the floor and stop quivering."

Agree to wait for the floor via a bounce if you’re looking to scalp and maximize the gain via a short term flip vs being a bit early, which is also fine if you’re buying to hold long term. Time horizon as always.

Well, what I meant was, is there a way to trade in real time? The markets are closed. So you don’t have any choice but to accept a giant drop in your portfolio when they open in the morning. There’s no opportunity to sell quickly.

I do agree that you could buy the dip if you just have cash lying around.

I am not a trader, but I’m curious about your thoughts on timing. If you wait, then you might miss out when the market climbs back up, right? Isn’t it worth doing some amount of buying even on the current dip before it hits the floor? Is it even possible to confidently identify the floor? In other words, why not do a series of smaller purchases on the way down and catch the falling dagger sort of.

It's too early for this quote, not enough people are fearful. It's not even down 5%. Last year tariffs drama the markets were down over 10% and the COVID crisis it was 30%. So this is as of yet pretty much a nothing burger. Oil futures prices are not moving either, so the majority is counting on a quick resolution.

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