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Comment by arlcode | Hacker News Reader

And will it be by 2030 or ten years later

If it is 2030, compute and software will vastly reduce requirements.

Nvidia has so much cash for R&D. You can bet they now have immense optimization and improvements in the pipeline, but why would they release anything groundbreaking right now?

There are no real competitors on their heels. As Intel did for decades, they will likely dole out improvements, only when necessary to remain ahead.

By 2030, I expect 10x improvement. We're also seeing stunning optimizations in trained models.

I imagine desktops running many of these local by 2030, even phones.

Will we need even 1/10 the datacenters for LLM in 2030? Certainly, privacy concerns are a thing.

When I read this comment all I see is: LLM at the edge - or close to it - will become available. And whoever provides the best eco-system across digital lifestyle and business wins.

Oh... Apple? lol.

Well that'd be funny wouldn't it.

Oh and dont forget Apple got rid of its reliance on Intel too. No reason why this can't happen again.

Why "funny"? Seems obvious to me that Apple is going to provide LLM at the edge. Who else would besides Google?

Oh lets see.

They were ridiculed for being 'behind on AI'. They haven't spent a dime on investing in AI-related infrastructure and so on...

And yet, they could stand to be the biggest beneficiaries if not the only. Given that they have plenty of resources in reserve and they are buying back stock - enabling insiders to have a greater say on actions in the future.

So tldr they are just standing by until everyone else dies? If this is the theory then they HAVE to be doing some serious AI things internally/R&D/in-secret so they're essentially "ready to go" ?

Of course they are.

I’m not an insider so I wouldn’t know the specifics.

I guess what's the downside though to getting into the game now and gaining users since they have loads of real cash anyways and a crash wouldn't really hurt them?

No downside. In fact, probably even better to wait another year and buy AI assets for nickels on the dollar instead of dimes on the dollar.

There will be continued hyperscale AI in the datacenter for some use cases, and AI in the smartphone (or PC) for other use cases. It is guaranteed to split that way. Apple's remarkable capabilities around custom chips will enable it to continue to stay out in front in smartphones.

" It is guaranteed to split that way."

There's no guarantee whatsoever.

Could not believe how almost no-one saw this [0]. It was quite obvious that companies like Apple that are prioritizing local inference and potentially training have already won the race to $0.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40278371

I did lol. I can't speak for enterprise in totality, but I see a world where Apple is the dominant provider of products/services for consumer and SMB's.

Google's lack of investment in marketing, design and sales/distributions capabilities is going to hurt them badly. MSFT is no different in many respects - latching onto the investments in 'relationships' and 'switching cost' initiatives that have kept customers loyal to them.

Apple is in great shape.

With 10x improvements, I expect we need 10x the data centers (Jevons paradox)

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