“Attention is all you need” was published 9 years ago, and gpt3.5 burst onto the scene 4 years ago.

Progress is slower than people seem to think. Of course AI as a field is half a century old.

But on the other hand, AI had a period of rapid acceleration 40-ish years ago and was then hit by an AI winter. We might hit that winter again in a year and all predictions made today are off the table.