That'd go a long way towards curbing the corruption of these things, while preserving (or even greatly enhancing) their "predictive power."
And the transparency must be real-time and MUST include the full dox on beneficial owner of the contract/bet, with steep jailtime for falsification/fronting, etc.. They can even say it is for tax purposes — they win that bet, they should pay income tax (and be able to deduct the costs of their losing bets against that specific income type).
I want to know if a bunch of senators or DOD personnel bet on event X, and I want journalists and OSINT watchers to know it in realtime. That gives everyone information while naturally eliminating most of the advantage of insider trading, since nearly everyone will pile into the same trade and the odds/payoff will come closer to the reality.
Knowing that high-level DOD official were betting on us invading Iran does us no good if the only reason we invaded Iran was so they could win their long-odds bet. Sure, we can try and shame them, but now they're rich and we're fighting another middle-east war.
Of course it does, if we’re willing to do ever-so-slightly more than jerk off on TikTok about it.
Why can't that same method be used to prevent or indict gov't insiders who tries to do the same?
It is an inherently hard problem to identify insider trading when trading securities, or in this case, bets/contracts, doesn't have participant identification and transparency problems
The same solution would be best for both — everyone can trade freely with the sole caveat that all ultimately beneficial owners are fully identified and the trades are transparently published in real-time.
Braying about "free market" when in the actual market players can hide their identities and covertly manipulate it, while having an underfunded agency supposedly tracking them down after the fact, is just a farce.
A solution structured so it naturally and dynamically self-corrects is far better than an enforcement bolted-on after the fact. And yes, there would still be enforcement of requiring transparency to enforce proper identification.
I believe prediction markets and sports betting apps are societal failures that only serve to alienate the masses and further extract wealth to the top. Let's ban them all, we're not losing anything.
Public trades will make people targets and that will create weird incentives.
https://apnews.com/article/crypto-bitcoin-kidnapping-wrench-...
https://www.merkley.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/End-Predic...
Good behavior starts at the top. It becomes a lot easier to crack down on low-level corruption if the guys at the top aren't doing it.
If someone really smart knows what will happen, that will make the market’s predictive ability more accurate.
2) retail traders lose money and know far less than institutional investors, but do retail traders participate in the stock market? Of course they do.
There's no such position. You may be referring to the Secretary of Defense.
This machine kills hope.