Kuwait Shuts Production, Qatar Warns Oil Could Hit $150 in Weeks
oilprice.com
oilprice.com
My intuition is it won't be a headline-generating event -- it'll be something quieter and faster-moving. Shipping insurance. Lloyd's and peer underwriters have been tightening Persian Gulf coverage since week one. At 50 oil, the math changes: even with elevated premiums, it might become rational to route tankers through the Cape of Good Hope (+10-14 days) rather than wait for Hormuz to normalize. That routing shift alone pushes freight costs further.
The second-order effect that seems underappreciated: heating oil and diesel. Brent headline numbers get attention, but heating oil (already up 14% this week) directly hits industrial boilers, farms, and lower-income households in Europe and the US Northeast that can't switch to electric quickly. There's a constituency that gets hit hard before 50 Brent -- they're at 30 Brent effectively.
The third effect: trade credit. Companies that move physical goods need working capital to bridge the gap between buying inventory and selling it. If fuel costs (shipping, manufacturing) spike sharply, that working capital requirement jumps and credit lines don't automatically follow. Some SMBs in energy-intensive sectors are already borrowing against receivables to cover fuel increases.
None of these are single dramatic events. They're aggregate pressure. Which is probably why the Gulf states who pushed for 50 warnings are doing so -- it's not a prediction, it's a threat designed to accelerate diplomatic movement.
But there are bigger fish to fry:
Given that the DHS was Dr. President's only surviving bastion of signature policy, it only makes sense to shoot it like a puppy by social media firing squad to bridge the gap from the full-transparency-who-cares-about-child-rape-when-the-Dow-is-50K DoJ testimony about the Lolita scandal to the it's-armageddon-not-war being fought "fuck yeah!" by the Team America World Police Dept of War...
Props to U.S.A.: our leadership can roll bullshit at moon-mission levels of sophistication.
(insert AI video of Dr. President piloting a fighter jet with his air supply worn as a chin diaper bombing his electorate with shit)
"Dicks, pussies and assholes" Team America!
> and that milk has never been cheaper
I am not sure about Milk but food prices are going to be on the rise because fertilizer and energy are two key components and we are seeing energy prices rise but also, most fertilizer is made from LPG and other components within Middle east imported by rest of the world and Middle east is key supplier of Fertilizers.
So in a way, Food prices across the world are gonna rise due to this war as well and I think that Milk prices are also atleast dependent on the costs of food given to the dairy industry. So chances of that increasing very much directly being impacted by this war as well! I just wanted to point this out too.
Both Food and Energy crisis due to the Iran war are likely the most important factor in baseline inflation (iirc) and so baseline inflation is gonna be on the rise too which I am hearing from some people that this can increase interest rates as it puts even more inflatory pressure on the Fed's which can lead to a financial crisis.
Energy/Food crisis in 2007 lead to Inflation and then Interest rates hike which caused the housing bubble to burst.
And let's just say that the nature of American stock markets right now is on incredibly shakier grounds as well similar to 2007 and feels "bubbly"
Note that one of the stated goals of the Republican Party and the Trump administration is - Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far! and - Keep the US dollar as the world's reserve currency ( https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-pa... ). Both are linked - the only way the dollar can remain the reserve currency of the world is if the US control oil and gas production (petro-dollars).
Iranians, in effect, are sadly doomed as victims of modern imperialism (and even face a possible genocide from the current genocidal regime of Israel, as they are unlikely to surrender without a fight). It all depends on how much destiny / luck will favour them. If the other Middle-East countries get really jittery, they will pressure the US to end the war. Or, better yet, Iran may still get to retain some of their sovereignty if they can effectively and successfully block the Strait of Hormuz - China will then be forced to get involved in the war, siding with Iran, as blocking of the Strait could mean the death knell for its economy (40-50% of China's and India's oil and gas is mported through it). If China gets involved, the Russian too would be willing to get involved in the military conflict. India would also be forced to choose a side. We would then see either Word War 3, or Iran falling into the Spheres of Influence of China and / or Russia.
That being said, I have also heard the opposite of it that it is not in profit for US either and I'd love a discussion about it too.
So basically, Strait of hormuz being blocked and Iran is gonna most likely strike de-salination plants of middle eastern countries like Saudi Arabia too.
Strait of hormuz is essential for food as 90% of food comes through this chokepoint which is essentially blocked now and with all of this combined. 2 weeks are some estimates that I hear that issues can come within the middle eastern countries.
They got shit ton of oil but they can't feed their population oil. It puts direct pressure on the monarchy and other countries to stop the war as the population might revolt against the govt. to stop the war. Also doesn't help the religious aspects side of things as arabs are likely to step with iran in this war from the sentiment online that I see.
So the pressure on Middle East countries to fight against US could very well mean the end of petro-dollar and the debasement of US dollar as the global currency as well.
If the people in the middle-east can't drink water and can't eat food. Then a lot of factors change quite significantly
I think the subtext of all of this from the Iranian side to all the other Middle Eastern countries is that Israel and US cannot be trusted, and to we will attack the US, we will attack anything US based and to and that the Middle East countries should apply pressure for their own food security on US and Israel to stop the war.
Another point is that Saudi Arabia was recently in the Washington Post Was being considered as part of this alliance of US and Israel, and that Saudi Arabia has a bigger impact in the war. So I think that Saudi Arabia has denied this, but still the fact that Washington Post is saying this means that there is some truth to this, and that the Iranian side could actually confirm it from their side. And this is still a bit messy, though.
I think that Iran will do this course just earth policy without having the regime change for all what it's worth Iran's supreme leader was killed by the US. So I think that Iran will actually apply this coarse death policy if it ever really loses from the US.
Another thing is that this war could maybe just continue on for years and years, but the problem with that is that at some point either the US has to win or it has to back out. And I mean it's all going to be very you know like pessimistic at home. And I don't even believe that even if US tries to withdraw now, like the whole region is so instabilized that I am unsure of how to bring stability back within the region if any.
What are your thoughts on it?
https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/iranian-drone-damages-desal...
> or the oil infrastructures of its neighbours
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/uae-repor...
you were saying?
> Iran said it was the United States that set a precedent for such attacks when it targeted a water desalination plant on Iranian soil. “The US committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X on Saturday. “Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted. Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The US set this precedent, not Iran.” ... Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on Sunday that Iran would be “forced to respond” against neighbouring countries if their territory is used to attack it. - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/bahrain-says-water-d...
(Most western news media are terrible when it comes to middle-east reporting and only tend to parrot and enforce a one-sided western narrative.)
As for the fire in UAE’s Fujairah oil industry zone, as the media report say, it was caused by drone derbis (which means damage was caused by a falling debris of a drone that was destroyed mid-air). Nobody has suggested that Fujairah was the target. (Note that Iranian drones and missiles also lack precision. And Fujairah could indeed be a legitimate target for the Iranian military if the American military depends on it too).