The bigger question is the impact of immigration policies- the US population is smaller than expected due to immigration effects, so some of the extrapolation typically done may be skewed. I doubt this will make the numbers look better though. These numbers may be volatile for some time until the true effects of the lack of immigration are understood and modeled properly.
Makes a big difference.
2022, gained 678,000 jobs in February (Doesn't really count, global economy was emerging from Covid shutdowns.)
2023, gained 311,000 jobs in February
2024, gained 275,000 jobs in February
2025, gained 151,000 jobs in February (This seems to be the point of discontinuity with gains only about half of what were typically expected.)
2026, lost the 92,000 we're talking about. (Obviously, we had expected a gain.)
> Payrolls in the US dropped by 92,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, according to the latest official figures, surprising analysts who had expected hiring to remain stable.
I'm not in any way suggesting the economy isn't taking a shit, but I'm curious about the actual expectation and reality. I know it says analysts expect hiring to be stable, but hiring isn't the same as job losses.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/
I'd say the article overstates its point somewhat. The numbers (rise in unemployment) don't look to be caused by Trump alone (trend started before), but he most certainly did not improve the situation in his first year (numbers grew worse instead of better).
But the absolute numbers (<5%ish unemployment) are not especially concerning for now despite trending in the wrong direction (and all of Trumps policies seem to make things worse so far).