The thin liquidity on these event contracts is the real story. On most Kalshi and Polymarket war/geopolitics events, the orderbook has maybe 10-20k in total depth. That means a single trader with inside knowledge can buy up the entire book and still make multiples on their capital. I've been tracking cross-venue price discrepancies between Kalshi and Polymarket using a tool called Claw Arbs, and the spreads on these geopolitical events can be 8-15 cents between the two platforms -- which tells you neither venue has enough informed flow to efficiently price these contracts.