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Nvidia just needs the winner to be an Nvidia customer. OpenAI is replacable.

If OpenAI folded, you’d have the one LLM company that consumers know suddenly gone. Which seems like the opposite of an AI success story.

People will start looking at valuations more carefully. Investors will get jittery. Spending on GPUs will drop, as will NVidia’s stock price.

I’m not sure that NVidia views OpenAI as replaceable.

If OAI folded, there would also be a sudden tsunami of recent Nvidia hardware on the used market.

Specifically built for training and inference and not much else, and also they age like milk. I don’t see how that helps anyone.

It would be a fun day for hobbyists who want to run big open source models locally, if nothing else.

Customers comparable to openai are trending towards designing and/or using their own silicon, though.