"Prediction" markets were supposed to be great because of insiders: they make the probabilities much more accurate and actually useful for forecasting.
But they ended up just being for gamblers and there is no more signal.
But they ended up just being for gamblers and there is no more signal.
We're sooo screwing over an entire generation of men.
Essentially the argument is that more dumb money in a prediction market provides an even stronger incentive for smart money to join, moving the price back to an accurate probability.
That also seems to assume that there’s enough smart money (and smart information) to balance things out. I’m not sure about that.
It does seem like there could be a distinction between markets which require genuinely knowledge and analysis (geopolitics), versus pure gambling (sports, crypto up/down 5 minutes, etc), but I'm not sure who's going to bother making it.