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Are the increasing # of distinct submitters from established accounts or new accounts?

Don't know that yet either! at least that one isn't hard to answer, it just needs a bit of spare time.

Here is the data since the beginning of HN, where a new submitter is defined as a user whose account was created less than three months before the submission:

Stories: https://pastebin.com/Zc4jXvp4

Comments: https://pastebin.com/cFuczTWJ

The number of new submitters has indeed increased significantly since the beginning of 2026.

Another very common tactic I’ve seen is accounts with 1 karma that’ve been aged a few months.

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