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Comment by great_psy | Hacker News Reader

Actually I think there’s another option.

There’s the scenario where LLMs get more efficient in size, and to get 2026 SOTA performance you will be able to get it from consumer grade laptop.

Sure with a 1000B parameter you will get better performance but the average person will have it write some python script, not derive new physics equations.

So in a sense the demand for LLM intelligence with reach a plateau (arguably we are there today for avg person) so there will not be any subsidy required, because the avg person will not need the latest and greatest.

There’s not the same demand pattern for something like uber.

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> There’s the scenario where LLMs get more efficient in size, and to get 2026 SOTA performance you will be able to get it from consumer grade laptop.

But isn't that bad for the AI companies, too? Because then people just run an ~2026 SOTA performance open source model on their laptop for free and not pay any subscription.

Yes and no.

Regular folks will not pay Anthropic, but NSA, NASA or research labs might.

I’m not implying this will be a good time for AI companies. I am saying AI as a technology can provide value without it being controlled by only 3 companies.

In a hypothetical future with 2026 level LLMs on a (high end) consumer laptop, I still think that majority of buyers would prefer to pay 20 USD/month for a service. Just for the convenience and flexibility.

> In a hypothetical future with 2026 level LLMs on a (high end) consumer laptop, I still think that majority of buyers would prefer to pay 20 USD/month for a service. Just for the convenience and flexibility.

$20 a month is a lot of money, I don't think the "convenience and flexibility" you get would actually be worth it, unless you've 1) got money to burn, 2) lack the skills to install software, 3) the open source community totally fails to develop a reasonable installer. The LLM service would probably be akin to a scam preying on ignorance, like those companies that will rent you a water softener for like $100/month.

It is a lot compared to what? I believe that a LLM capable laptop will cost considerably more than something that is good-enough for non-LLM productivity tasks. At least within the next 5 years. Say that it would cost 600 USD more, that would buy 30 months of subscription. It is this kind of scenario I think many people will favor the subscription.

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