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Comment by ben_w | Hacker News Reader

Because they don't yet know how to "just stop emitting so much hot air" without also removing their ability to do anything like "thinking" (or whatever you want to call the transcript mode), which is hard because knowing which tokens are hot air is the hard problem itself.

They basically only started doing this because someone noticed you got better performance from the early models by straight up writing "think step by step" in your prompt.

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I would guess that by the time a response is being emitted, 90% of the actual work is done. The response has been thought out, planned, drafted, the individual elements researched and placed.

It would actually take more work to condense that long response into a terse one, particularly if the condensing was user specific, like "based on what you know about me from our interactions, reduce your response to the 200 words most relevant to my immediate needs, and wait for me to ask for more details if I require them."

“Sorry for the long letter, I would have written a shorter one but I didn’t have the time.”

IMO it supports the framing that it's all just a "make document longer" problem, where our human brains are primed for a kind of illusion, where we perceive/infer a mind because, traditionally, that's been the only thing that makes such fitting language.

To an extent. Even though they're clearly improving*, they also definitely look better than they actually are.

* this time last year they couldn't write compilable source code for a compiler for a toy language, I know because I tried

This time last year they could definitely write compilable source code for a compiler for a toy language if you bootstrapped the implementation. If you, e.g., had it write an interpreter and use the source code as a comptime argument (I used Zig as the backend -- Futamura transforms and all that), everything worked swimmingly. I wasn't even using agents; ChatGPT with a big context window was sufficient to write most of the compiler for some language for embedded tensor shenanigans I was hacking on.

Used to need the "if", now SOTA doesn't.

SOTA today has a different set of caveats, of course.

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