It's a few points, but consumers confidence is low and debt is _really_ high, saving rates are excruciatingly low (especially when compared to developing economies).

If I had to bet, US growth should be driven by AI investment, high-earner spending and net exports (a bit like China). Being a net exporter basically mean suppressing workers wages, so that tracks.

If tariffs are stopped all at once without being careful about it, I'm a bit wary of the chain reaction. We might see negative growth for a quarter (temporarily), but since the economy is vibe-based these days, that could end up really bad.