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You would need an army of thieves going around and physically pointing thermometers and the ROI isn't there.

VS. just checking your computer once and going to the correct place. Heck, set up alerts and get notified where to break in next.

The odds of a house with a smart thermostat also containing cameras is pretty high, though.

This is probably true, though I think the most important part of planning a break in is just ensuring people aren't there.

Sure, there are cameras and the cops can respond and that's certainly a deterrent, but a few masks and a quick getaway renders them moot.