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The way I imagine it in 2-4 years we're going to be hit with a triple glut of better architecture, massive oversupply of hardware and potentially one or two hardware efforts like this really taking off. It's pretty crazy we're already 4 years in and outside of very niche / low availability solutions, it's still either GPU or bust

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That's interesting! How do you see "oversupply of hardware" playing out?

Is it because we stop doing ~2024-style, large-scale training (marginal returns aren't worth it)? Or because supply way outpaces the training+inference demand?

AFAIU if the trend lines /S-curves keep chugging along as they are, we won't hit hardware oversupply for a long, long time without some sort of AI training winter.

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