I've observed a very different state. From what I've seen the sky-high expectations of AI have come down quite a lot.
Perhaps there's a matter of competing priorities?
Programmers are usually quite cynical overall, but in this case I see it as a "My CEO is telling me _out loud_ that they want to replace me, so why would I help them speed up that process?"
Investors likely want what they're invested in to appreciate, so I imagine they're likely over-leveraged and are doing what they can to get their bag.
they hype for AGI has certainly deflated, i haven't heard anything about that being right around the corner and the implications in a while now. The hype and doom now seems to be coming from software devs only, the front page news articles about AGI have pretty much stopped for me.
/"front page news" to me is the google news, US, Business, and Technology tabs
https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-ai-ceo-mustafa-sul...
The hall of fame will explode with failed predictions this year.
There were not with WeWork.
The SpaceX/xAI IPO will be more interesting.
xAi isn't even a point of discussion.. it's just a scheme to rip off investors.
WeWork.. hard to take anyone seriously that ever invested in this bad boy.
Masayoshi Son may not be providing returns for its investors but he is providing entertainment for the rest of the world.
The EV market was mighty small when Tesla started too.
Skate to where the puck is going.
But we’re talking about the launch market in the next 5-10 years, and it’s incredibly obvious it’s about to skyrocket
(Obviously it will “skyrocket” unless someone comes up with a commercially viable launch system that doesn’t involve rocketing into the sky…)
There’s US military stuff like the starsheild, and it seems extremely likely china will follow suit.
Sat internet is changing the world rapidly where fibre can not be run. I saw it first hand in remote Australia, Yukon, Alaska and Africa. Not to mention ships and planes.
These projects are aggressively driving down launch costs, which increases demand for launches, which drives down launch costs which drives up demand.
There is no doubt it is worth a lot in very remote destinations. But by definition there aren't many people there. Thus limited market size.
Launches for US military hardware is a market, yes.
Other countries are going to want to use/build up their own capabilities, so SpaceX won't have market access. Especially China.
The deorbiting part is redundant. Their satellite are just that, a depreciating asset. Their lifetime seem to be 5 to 7 years. The important claim is if the total cost, including the launch, can be recuperate over that lifetime or not.
As for OpenAI, I'm not sure if Altman is an idiot or fraudster, claims about reaching AGI/ASI with scaling and investing in that fashion was always delusional at best or fraudulent at worst, maybe he just hoped to divert enough money to engineers to make actual breakthroughs or that the hardware would become a moat but competitors have kept pace, and I fully agree that they are mostly now only hanging on with an insanely bad cost structure now.
maybe the smaller ones; Blue Origin succeeded, and French and Chinese nu-space companies will continue to get funding for decades - national governments are capable of footing the bill of large CapEx projects. SpaceX competition is irreversibly tied to US foreign policy, and only scientific amd commercial launches are price-sensitive
I know some commercial property owners in my hometown let their lowest-desirability storefronts sit vacant for twenty or thirty years (!) in order to prevent commercial property rent from falling across their entire portfolio. Turns out you can pay a lot of property taxes with not much revenue, and there hasn’t historically been regulatory pressure to pay an escalating “empty tax” to compel landlord pricing to behave according to supply and demand pricing models. Wework is still a terrible investment for an investor, but if you’re looking to bet long with no call and have the patient of decades, it’s not the worst plan. (There are certainly worse ways to gamble your money on the commercial property market!)
That doesn't make sense for WeWork, though. Aren't they a rent-a-generic desk company? If you have any kind of specialist requirements (e.g. "processing resins") they'd seem like a bad fit.
The reason GP said SpaceX/xAI is that these are now a single company.
But what happens if they can no longer sell those tangible goods at a massive profit, and they gave return to their roots selling to gamers? When the boom ends is when massive accounting fraud could happen.
They do, but that's not the (full) story here. Companies tend to easily migrate upwards, to a higher volume and/or higher profit margin market, and hardly (if ever) in the opposite direction. The painful restructuring necessary to enable this kind of reverse change is also damaging to the company brand, culture, and self-perception. If they ever get in such position, they may of course recover, but I wouldn't bet money on that.