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Comment by imachine1980_ | Hacker News Reader

imachine1980_

From what I understand, they make money per-token billing. Not enough for how much it costs to train, not accounting for marketing, subscription services, and research for new models, but if they are used, they lose less money.

Finance 101 tldr explanation: The contribution margin (= price per token -variable cost per token ) this is positive

Profit (= contribution margin x cuantity- fix cost)

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Do they make enough to replace their GPUs in two years?

if 100% of the money they spend is in inference priced by tokens (they don't say about subscriptions so i asume they lost money), yes they make money, but their expenses are way higher than inference alone. so they can make the gpu cost if they sell tokens but in reality this isnt the case, becouse they have to constaly train new models, subscription marketing, R&D, And overhead. antropic in general lost way less money than their competitors i will take this number in particular the projected break even but googling say Gross margin in this case is how much money they do whit the GPU " Gross Margins: Projected to swing from negative 94% last year to as much as 50% this year, and 77% by 2028. Projected Break-even: The company expects to be cash flow positive by 2027 or 2028. "

i will not be as bullish to say they will no colapse (0 idear how much real debt and commitments they have, if after the bubble pop spending fall shraply, or a new deepseek moment) but this sound like good trajectory (all things considered) i heavily doubt the 380 billions in valuation

"this is how much is spendeed in developers between $659 billion and $737 billion. The United States is the largest driver of this spending, accounting for more than half of the global total ($368.5 billion in 2024)" so is like saying that a 2% of all salaries of developers in the world will be absorbed as profit whit the current 33.3 ratio, quite high giving the amount of risk of the company.

https://www.ismichaelburryright.com/

Is my goto reference for debt numbers etc.

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