They have a current production capacity in the high hundreds of thousands, a software solution that has a reasonable chance of competing in the self driving market, and a worldwide distribution platform.

So the optimistic valuation is based on: Global ride share killer + Large car manufacturer + power infrastructure + Robotics.

Somehow the valuation is as though TSLA will succeeded early enough to entrench itself; if robotaxi wide rollout happens in the next six months, i would be happy to say TSLA is worth more than its current valuation. If it cant then at best 30% of current valuation.