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Pension funds have a different time horizon / cash flow needs than individual investors (namely, they need to meet their liabilities every month) and so are going to have a more conservative asset mix (read: lower expected returns w/ lower volatility) than your average S&P500 index funds.

For example, CaLPERS has ~45% of their assets under management in debt / real estate.

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Is high volatility really such a concern when you're dealing with a large pool of funds over such a long timeframe? Sure, if you need to withdraw funds during a downturn that's bad, but over the long term isn't that statistically balanced out by other months where you get lucky and withdraw during a peak?

I dont think its safe to assume perfect balance.

Further, I know it goes against economic orthodoxy, but I am a big fan of buying low and selling high. When the market is bad, I become more frugal, I might even run on debt instead of selling. When the market is at all time highs, I'll sell some from riskier and move that into other things.

Another oddity in this situation... People die slightly more often during flu season, so you could game this and plan to withdraw less.

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