I find where the argument gets lost is when undefined behavior is assumed to be exactly that, an invariant.
That is to say, I find "could not happen" the most bizarre reading to make when optimizing around undefined behavior "whatever the machine does" makes sense, as does "we don't know". But "could not happen???" if it could not happen the spec would have said "could not happen" instead the spec does not know what will happen and so punts on the outcome, knowing full well that it will happen all the time.
The problem is that there is no optimization to make around "whatever the hardware does" or "we have no clue" so the incentive is to choose the worst possible reading "undefined behavior is incorrect code and therefore a correct program will never have it".