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They don't have to nuke anybody, just rain missiles on the Baltics and create a land bridge to Kaliningrad.

Now the escalation ball's on our court. Are you willing to die for Latvia?

(And Medvedev does appear to be that bonkers)

Russian are soldiers and the West are investors. (War investors in this case). From an investor standpoint a soldier is insane.

Franz Ferdinand proves we are this bonkers.

I could believe that one man's death could start a conventional war. A conventional war is winnable. But 100 years later, a nuclear war is suicide at best.

Trump would almost certainly not intervene with nukes to protect non-US soil if Russia launched first, but there are plenty of European countries with nukes. Anyone in charge of Russia would have to accept the possibility that a first strike would leave them with a bad time.