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Everyone's a charlatan until their claims come true. For that matter, your rebuttal comes with its own statements of faith, "I just don’t buy it."

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Someone who predicts 15 of the last 2 recessions is a charlatan even when their claims come true.

But who was the charlatan? The person predicting the recession, or the government who stopped the predicted recession by adding another $5T to the debt pile, to almost inevitably cause a recession later, at a more politically convenient time for those in power today? The recession happened, as predicted, the government absorbed it for another day.

The person predicting the recession. Even if the government were preventing each new recession through historically unrivalled foresight, the predictor should eventually start incorporating that into the prediction.

If the prediction is "there will be a recession within the next 20 years", then, okay. If it's https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-a-i-bubble-is-burs... every single month...

I'm going with the pathologically incurious guy who is wrong in essentially every detail.

Everyone is free to make their own judgment about who is offering a genuine analysis that clarifies reality rather than obscuring it.

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