"everyone should agree that unrestricted exponential growth forever is impossible, if only for the eventual heat death of the universe." - why is this a good/useful framing?
I think "are the failures of a simple linear regression on the METR graph relevant" is a much better framing than "does seeing a line if you squint extrapolate forever." As I said, I'd much rather frame the discussion around the actual material conditions of AI progress, but if you are going to be drawing lines I'd at least want to start by acknowledging that no such model will be perfect.