About two months ago I was thinking that the bubble, of which everyones been talking about for the past years, might finally pop soon. I thought I might short some major tech companies and make some money off of it. I had two indicators that I was looking at to determine the start of it:

1-Zynga begins laying off people. (really, any big web 2.0 company begins laying off people, but zynga seemed like the logical choice.) The way I see it is this: if a flood of veteran web-devs, artists, PMs, etc hit the SF market, salaries will go down slightly as demand goes down. Since techies spend their money on tech, this will lead to revenues going down within the industry. This will begin a positive feedback loop because everything seems to be built on top of itself right now.

2-Second indicator is that Amazon's stock would fall. This is because they are essentially the bellwether of the tech industry: everyone runs their stuff on AWS. If their revs go down (which it doesnt look like they have), that means companies are feeling the pinch. Again, a positive feedback loop could quickly ensue.

Now that my two indicators have come to pass, I still don't believe strongly enough in the bubble theory to short the industry. But if anyone else wants to take my theory to the bank, I would be happy to take a 10% referral fee on any and all gains :)