74% of European firms would fail without access to U.S. technology | Hacker News Reader

74% of European firms would fail without access to U.S. technology

europeancorrespondent.com

20 pointsspeckx37 comments

For the people comparing the dependence on US tech to US dependence on ASML: It’s not the same. US software providers can shut down their software services in an instant, paralyzing European societies.

If the US government forces them to, Microsoft and Google could refuse to serve Office 365, Microsoft cloud storage, Google Drive, Google mail, all online services that we use Google to log in with, Android, so nearly all smart phones, Windows and MacOS. Society would grind to a halt.

If Taiwan loses access to ASML, then Europe loses as much as Taiwan or US does, and the effects could take years to feel

Could Google brick Android phones remotely in theory?

A single OTA update would brick most phones in a couple of weeks. Taking advantage of any of the many zero day exploits would enable them to brick most phones in a matter of hours.

Via certificate invalidation, or turning off services for certificate pinning?

>> US software providers can shut down their software services in an instant, paralyzing European societies.

Takes us through the scenario....Because lately too many have started to believe this story of USA: "...we dont need anybody, all others need us...". Maybe too much FoxNews...

Practically greed of US companies will give Europeans ample amount of time to transition. See Russia where US companies are effectively still present even when they are claiming they are not.

> US software providers can shut down their software services in an instant, paralyzing European societies.

And no US SaaS provider or cloud provider will ever be trusted again, instant cutting off a part of the US economy.

Lots of the world already doesn't given their current and past actions, especially under the current administration. Google now gives out your personal and financial info to ICE without a judicial warrant.

And big tech will take the profit and future business trust hit, just like that? What would the US do, just pay them out? It's a ridiculous fear.

It's far more likely to be useful for surveillance to pass to US intelligence services. In fact it's probably already serving this function?

More and more reason for Europe to become decoupled from USA. This is not an attack on USA, merely my opinion that you should not have your eggs in one basket.

I doubt this happens. The administration is very buddy-buddy w/ big tech & asking them to cut off their entire European stream of income is not something they'll go for.

I'd imagine Europe would try to nationalize all EU assets of these companies if they did get cut off and try to recover any data that lives in Europe (though would take a long time).

Also, it'd light a bunch of soft power the US has through these tech companies on fire.

that consideration seems to not have played much of a role so far though?

Certainly worthwhile building resilience but interconnectedness is unavoidable.

Most homes would look pretty Spartan without stuff from China for example.

0% is not happening without an ungodly drop in living standard

Depends on the timeline.

Fundamentally, there's no reason why the continent of Europe can't do what China did.

Politically, I only see that kind of transitioning happening with an actual war, where all the problems with the USA or Russia respectively (yes, even though I said "continent" and Russia let alone Ukraine is on continental Europe) are at present distant storm-clouds on opposite horizons.

Is any country truly independent? Surely all countries must use other countries for something. Whether that's software, manufacturing, food, etc.

US would have a problem if nobody bought their debt. Yeah, they could print more, but Weimar is an extreme example of that "solution".

How many US firms would fail without access to ASML/Zeiss or products derived from their work?

or SAP

No politician says this, because ASML and Zeiss depend on US equipment to build their machines.

Which suppliers? Do they supply anything that ASML realistically can't get anywhere?

There is no good alternative for ASML if EU tries to shut down US access.

A significant part of their machines are US made, though they don’t break it down (an earlier comment had an erroneous number).

However, some huge parts are US made. For example, the EUV light source, the most important part of the system, that’s San Diego.

This is also how the US has legal authority to control where ASML can export their machines, and has used it previously.

https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-statem...

The US has authority due to EUV LLC patents, not necessarily because of parts, parts can be sourced elsewhere if needed (both Europe and to some extent China can produce most or all of advanced machinery required).

This is an assertion... but it's only a hope, a statement of faith, an assumption, not an objective analysis whether the parts can be made in any reasonable time frame. The most complex part of an EUV photolithography machine is the EUV light source, manufactured in the US; good luck reproducing that overnight. China's been trying for years.

Similarly, it also excludes any scenario where the US government, if there is some sort of blockade action, decides to take a visit to San Diego and see how the sausage is made. Should that occur, the US government could potentially be back in business before ASML.

It's produced in the USA by... ASML San Diego, the knowledge is inside the main ASML Holdings, it doesn't need to only exist in San Diego if the need arises.

It's been good politics (and of course very likely good business) to keep it in the USA, if pressure and high risk comes there will be a lot of incentive to not need the USA parts and have it manufactured somewhere else.

I believe the EUV Light Source you're referring to is made by ASML in San Diego. So ASML has the IP/knowledge to stand this production up elsewhere.

If they're smart, 74% of European firms are making plans to rely less on US software.

Does that include ads in US social media?

Actually social media is relatively easy to replace and as such not as big threat to European economy as other types of service. The biggest threat from social media is manipulation and collection of data that can be used to manipulate.

I, for one, cannot wait for the zero-sum mentality to expire.

DORA mandated risk assessment enters the chat

Did anybody see the data and/or rational that supports this absurd statement of the 74%?

74% of companies using one of Google (Suite/Cloud), AWS, Microsoft (365/Azure) seems reasonable

Maybe ...my question was if the ridiculous article, has any data to support this. Who would not have other backups etc...etc..

US would go dark without ASML machines...

…and ASML would go dark without US equipment.

Or many other things, but from a national (or regional) perspective, the question is "how quickly?", because if the EU is forced to blink first that's bad for the EU.

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