We have a pretty good idea. Bitcoin holders and miners promote it. Punters buy because it's going up until it peaks and then they sell because it's going down.

The a value is approx <amount average person invests in bitcoin> x <number of people> / <number of coins (~16 mil)>

It goes up over the cycles as the number of people in it goes 1 mil, 10, 100, 1000 etc.

The anything includes gold continuing to rise and the dollar continuing to fall as countries continue to sell dollars and dollar denominated assets because of self enriching, petty policies. Why trust anything this administration says, especially as news is driven by an investigation into a cabal of pedophiles and things are decided as they are considered in real time, emotionally. This is what people wanted, I guess.

very broad extrapolation of the previous two 'cycles'. after a peak, it tends to crash to 20-30% of previous peak value, goes sideways for a year or two, then goes up to 2x its previous peak.

the 'four year cycle' is perhaps moreso the 'US presidential cycle'.