My favorite open source projects still have zillions of open bugs. Lots of projects are shutting down accepting external contributions because the PRs are so terrible. Wipro still isn't bankrupt.

Cheerleading is nice. Seeing the bug counts from my favorite projects significantly decrease would be evidence.

I'm not betting against them, I use them every day (but I don't "vibe code"—there's more intent). I'm just not treating them as a deity or other prayer-candle worthy entity. They're business tools. It's just a chat bot bro.

I agree. We've been assured by these skeptics that models are stochastic parrots, that progress in developing them was stalling, and that skills parity with senior developers was impossible - as well as having to listen to a type of self-indulgent daydreaming relish about the eventual catastrophes companies adopting them would face. And perhaps eventually these skeptics will turn out to be right. Who knows at this stage. But at this stage, what we're seeing is just the opposite: significant progress in model development last year, patterns for use being explored by almost every development team without widespread calamity and the first well-functioning automated workflows appearing for replacing entire teams. At this stage, I'd bet on the skeptics being the camp to eventually be forced to make the hard adjustments.

I mean, if it ever gets good, eh, I suppose I'll use it? Pre-emptively using it in case it one day works properly seems rather perverse, tho.