The PC isn't dead
dendory.net
dendory.net
The power of the app, I think, is in emulating small things – not replacing dedicated, powerful tools.
Developers wanted a linker for .Net; they never got one. Viable market penetration of any given version of the .NET framework always lagged several years between the latest available. They've churned through multiple desktop development technologies in the past decade, and winforms, the only one that will meet the needs of most the market (XP -> 8), is no longer being updated. And, Visual Studio 2012 doesn't even have a built-in project deployment tool for desktop apps, instead relying on WiX or outside vendors. I realize that Microsoft can't tread water forever, but if the PC desktop does die, part of the blame will lay at Microsoft's own feet.
Yep. Not dead, not by any stretch of the imagination, but certainly not as ubiquitous as other devices.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/2010/06/02/steve-jobs-at...
Tablets are great for small, specialized tasks. They are great because they are lightweight, have good battery life and can be manipulated simply.
However I can't help but think that they are not fit for every job, just like a small city car isn't something you want of you have a spouse and three children. Multitasking, for example, isn't practical on a tablet : I have yet to see a tablet that allows me to chat with video or text while doing research on the web or browsing my mail, for example. And doing these tasks simultaneously isn't some kind of niche or power user activity. I could find countless simple things which are as of today only doable on tablet by going through much pain. Moreover, I think that one of the biggest advantages of tablets is that because they're somewhat more intuitive, they can reach a wider audience, notably people who are less computer-literate. But making technology accessible to our elders or less educated people is a good thing, but let's not forget that the next generations are born in technology and will be more accustomed to using it in its various forms, including the more "complex" PCs (which they will most likely have to use for their work anyway).
All in all, tablets and PC will both evolve, and the gap between them will be filled in. We are already seeing bigger screen, keyboards, more powerful CPUs / GPUs on tablets (which is exactly what the core i3 MS tablet will be), and on the other hand, lowered power consumption CPUs, better battery lives, weight reductions and smaller, touch-sensitive screens on PCs (again, there are a lot of products more or less matching that description).
I don't think the PC will die anytime soon.
I'm completely computer literate and use my iPad exclusively when at home; I have stacks of laptops that don't get any use anymore. Its just more convenient to use for what I do at home, I will not be replacing my home PCs for a very very long time. And...kids today will grow up using mostly iPads and facebook, they won't experience the joys of a BASIC command prompt like we did. Given the proliferation of canned content, they are unlikely to get their hands really dirty with flexible/configurable computing until they reach college!
If more and more people find it simpler and easier to satisfy their computing needs with devices like smartphones and tablets, there could easily come a point where economies of scale start working against PCs, accelerating a decline into a niche "producer" device.
Personally, I think hybrid devices are likely to prevent that because they'll be a better fit for the many users who primarily consume but still occasionally produce, but that's a separate argument.
Also consider the ingredients of the modern PC. The chipsets and motherboards are Intel / AMD, and Intel won't slow down since it basically owns business workstations. AMD is kind of stuck. The motherboard makers already have entire product lines of extremely niche products (see the x79 chipset) and sata disks / DDR memory are used in mobile devices, just at different form factors. They still need wireless / usb controllers, maybe the cases get more expensive?
Point is, the two markets are very tightly coupled, and there is a diverse enough pc component market that consumer demand dropping doesn't phase it too much. Worst case scenario is less R&D goes into high end parts since there is less demand for them, which is already happening (look at Ivy Bridge, barely upped performance but cut power consumption a ton).
Worldwide PC sales are estimated about 320 millions, per year, and more than 1.5 billions PC are estimated to be in use currently [2].
[1] http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-... [2] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044465780457804... and http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm
It's the same as when workstations were displaced by PCs (and Sun died): PCs are now used as workstations (also, used as minicomputers, servers, mainframes). The usage won't disappear, because keyboards and desks remain useful.
Soon, "desktops" will be displayed by devices that look like phones, but are used like desktops. Some will double as phones; some will be dedicated (like Apple TV); some will be desktops, like those USB computers. It's already begun.
As a comparison, by one benchmark, the iPhone 5 is 3x as powerful of the first eeePC 701 - which I use as a desktop, with HD screen, full keyboard and mouse.
I'm currently in the middle of running an "Arduino for Beginners" workshop series at our local hackerspace. We have 25 attendees, 24 of them are brand new to the hackerspace. All the attendees are technically literate and interested, but only one or two are programmers or heavily into technology. Everyone brings their own laptop.
The first hour of the first session was almost entirely spent with everyone setting up their laptop with the Arduino software. At least 3 of the attendees took closer to two hours, both with weird Windows problems and driver issues and random slowdowns, unexpected software alerts, etc. One took more than the workshop's 3 hours to get running smoothly, her laptop finally deciding it needed to install many dozen security updates.
All four of the people whose Windows computers caused them such slowdowns told me "I barely ever turn this on any more, I just use my iPad/tablet and phone at home."
This is purely anecdotal and it's a small sample size, could easily be non-representative. But it did make me think, if I wasn't a geek and a hobby programmer/tinkerer then I'd pretty much just do email & web browsing at home, occasionally update/print my resume or write a small flyer. Would I need a PC? Why would I bother to own one, especially if PC maintenance was of no interest to me?
I think this embodies a larger distinction: Are you mostly a consumer or a producer? The line isn't firm, but for someone who mostly consumes, a tablet or equivalent makes total sense for the reasons you enumerate.
For almost anyone who produces or aspires to produce, however, I don't think that laptop/laptop-with-docking-stations/desktop-style machines are going anywhere, for the reasons that are being articulated throughout this thread. I especially like the guy with four monitors. Personally, I only have two, but one is very large, and even then I'd like to imagine that it's not the size, but how you use it.[1]
Again, I don't think this distinction is hard and fast, so the person who just wrote their own operating system, followed by a 1,000 page fantasy novel, on their iPad can reframe the comment they're about to make. But I do think the distinction serves a useful purpose in talking about where things are going.
[1]Technology porn photos, for interested parties: http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2012/09/23/the-geekdesk-writin... .
Yes, let's.
>I hate on-screen keyboards, all of them, and type much slower on them than on a full size keyboard.
Same here - but we're both a lot faster than average people on a keyboard.
>And if you compare working with a mouse versus working with a touch screen, again there's no comparison of speed.
Actually I find a touch screen much faster for most things. Has the author tried it enough?
>Finally, my PC has a 19'' display, why go down to a 10'' or 4'' one?
Why not? It's not like you get more pixels on the 19" these days. Given two same-resolution screens, I'll take the more portable one please.
>As for the cloud, I used Google Docs, but personally find it extremely lacking. If you ever try to use a template, you quickly find out how broken their system is. The templates they offer break all over the place.
"Average people" don't even know what a template is.
> ask any accountant or book author who tried to use online spreadsheets or word processors to do heavy duty work what they thought of it.
I wrote a novel in google docs. It was great. I especially liked the part where one of the computers I was using broke halfway through and it made no difference to me at all.
No, increase your mouse sensitivity I can't physically move my hand as fast as I move the mouse because the full screen is only 1 inch travel distance on my mouse. Most of this is from playing games but high DPI mice on a good surface are vary precise.
Sure, the hardware isn't quite there yet (especially if you want to be able to use it for gaming - gaming PCs are still monsters), but I think that's where PCs are headed, and where Microsoft thinks they're going also. It explains the surface, and Windows 8 perfectly - and if I (and they) are right, it gives them a huge head start.
The only argument OP makes that applies to general consumers is gaming, and that can be moved to a console.
The key word is good enough. And for the vast majority of consumers, tablets & phones are exactly that - good enough. Heck, I make my living writing software, and I barely flip on my home machine any more - bluetooth keyboard, tablet, and ssh are good enough.
I think that's the reason why I love consoles - I haven't had to upgrade my gaming machine since 2006. And looking at the games I've enjoyed in the last 12 months - Skyrim and MW3 (for purely multiplayer funsies) I don't feel like I've missed anything having an ancient machine.
And don’t think I haven’t logged many hours playing either. A console doesn’t mean I’m just casually playing games - I take a deep delight in sitting down on my couch with a beer, dog by my side, and blapping annoying teenagers online whenever I get the chance.
As a PC gamer this is what pisses me off. You aren't missing anything because publishers won't write games that don't run on consoles. The graphics and CPU power on my desktop dwarfs a console, but it's all wasted power.
That may be a small percentage of home users, but virtually everyone who works in a cube farm will be better off with a mouse, keyboard, and a large display area.
You're thinking of a PC as some box you plug things in to, but in the future that could be as antiquated as the old mainframe.
For an interesting short animated science fiction film that gives you a glimpse of ubiquitous computer displays check out Pale Cocoon:
http://www.crunchyroll.com/pale-cocoon/episode-1-ova-1-20698
There are some very nice LaTeX editors found online and they aren't that bad.
If you're comparing touchscreens on the desktop with mice on the desktop, this is certainly true. But touchscreen input on a tablet device holds up pretty well against a mouse on a desktop. Maybe beats it.
However... game console controllers are also not as good as a mouse, and yet they now drive game sales and development.
I guess you mean for FPS, only ? For platform games, for fighting games, these controllers are perfectly adequate. The reason why console FPS have become more popular on consoles than on PCs is simply associated to market share of console hardware, big budget exclusive titles (Halo, Killzone, Gears of War) and is not even remotely linked to how good the controls are.