Bitcoin gets a zero price target in wake of Burry warning
seekingalpha.com
seekingalpha.com
If Bitcoin Core decides this is true and alters the algo to save the chain, it too will lead to collapse as a Balkanization will occur across the mining pools. The most likely outcome is disintegration.
It's just as irrational as it was 10 years ago, there have always been more productive uses for energy, but it doesn't really matter, people will always chose their own short-term profit, expecting anything else is delusional
People will not always consider short term profit; thinking such is an irrational expectation.
I strongly believe they don’t, but I’d love to see the math and be proven wrong.
Bitcoin's entire market cap is right now at a less than 1/10th of US GDP. Hard to say what the payment volume is since by all accounts, most movement in BTC is speculative rather than transactional.
Also, and a bit harder to overlook... Visa/MC are able to work thousands of transactions per second in the US alone. Bitcoin can do like 7. Not seven thousand, just seven. Worldwide.
It's not even a competition, really. BTC has no future without some radical changes.
And I doubt they use that much power. Modern developers are incapable of efficiency, but there is not that much processing to do.
The price in US dollars for either block rewards or electricity can go up or down, but this comparison always stays the same.
"The best technical analysis anyone has done on bitcoin."
> [Burry] warned that if prices fall another 10%, Strategy (MSTR) would be billions in the red and could “find capital markets essentially closed".
According to bloomberg [1] mstr is still trading at a 9% premium to the btc it owns. Why would bitcoin falling another 10% make a difference?
Re: 10% specifically, i havent checked but Im guessing thats a floor on their cost basis for a bunch of holdings going negative.
Everything is documented on their website...
“Now”? No; it’s always been a speculative asset. The only folks who didn’t think that were those who didn’t know any better.
That’s a 669% inflation rate.
> That said, as a Wealth Advisor, I do NOT recommend clients investing in the stock if they are not willing to do the requisite 100+ hours of studying Bitcoin before yet another 100+ hours studying MicroStrategy.
Ouch!
[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/1qx2qs2/photos_ta...
so i don't believe it will ever go to zero as it has intrinsic value as a casino, if nothing else
At best you are buying a dollar with dollar. Just doesn't compute for me.
There are at least two scenarios in which “just a dollar” is a great outcome for someone purchasing a stable coin (assuming that it’s actually stable):
1. You want the convenience of digital coin transfers/payments without the variance of price swings (e.g., recent Bitcoin). This can be especially useful when you have access to a phone but limited or no direct access to modern banking facilities.
2. It’s easy to get your local currency onto an exchange, but it’s not easy or advisable to have a dollar bank account or keep large amounts of dollars in cash in your locale.
3. (I guess for completeness) You want to engage in activities that are of questionable legality (e.g., drug sales in certain places, online poker in most of the US, etc.).
For the other 80% of the planet though, it's a game changer. Rough estimate, but feels fair, as outside the US most people can't have one without substantial access to capital.
At the end of the day, it's just another IOU, much like a bank deposit, except instead of getting the 0.1% yield and FDIC (IF you're in the US), you get the ability to transact 24/7 across borders in a much faster manner than even bank wires, let alone ACH payments.
The underlying fundamental analysis is rejected out of hand by anyone who chooses to speculate in Bitcoin --- the fundamental value may not be $0 but it's safe to say that is way less than it's currently price. Once the mining networks are no longer profitable, the value will be $0.
Bitcoin is not a good currency or a store of value. Fundamentally, it's just another version of a non-fungible token (NTF).
To see where BTC is ultimately headed, just look at NFT's --- aka the Bored Ape Yacht Club. These are now selling for about 4% of their all time high. And they are much more "rare" and "collectible" than Bitcoin.
- early 2018
- March 2020
- Summer 2021
- Summer 2022
- mildly in Q1 2025
- now in early 2026
This has never happened before!
on the other hand there is a price where the network no longer has any incentive to operate. Whereupon... doesn't it just stop working / become easily forkable? in which case it seems like Bitcoin is perhaps uniquely unable to recover from crashing out of all things that can crash (a thesis which is consistent with it having no intrinsic value, lol)
When they’re personally financially desperate. Bitcoin is, in many senses, a measure of the excess capital in the economy.
This piece predicts that BTC will go to zero because it is held my MicroStrategy and is not a good hedge against stock market.
And unlike Bitcoin, it is producing something. Maybe not what people hope, but it's more than just a "store of value".
Once the speculation money starts to leave, the supply of greater fools will have run out. There will be literally nobody willing to buy it.
The fact this is happening amid one of the smallest dumps from an ATH in Bitcoin's history is particularly amusing. 45%, compared to 80+ in prior cycles. And this time, while all major markets are melting down amid global liquidity hitting a wall.
Been a swift drop this time. My buddy goes "if only I sold it all in October", what... like the rest of the people participating in the Ponzi scheme who would also like to cash out at the top?
Looks like all those stupid bitcoin treasury companies are finally unwinding.
At least no one's sitting around pretending it's going to actually do anything useful anymore.
It enriches certain elected officials (and their friends). That's why the US Government holds a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve".
Other than that if you measured the utility of Crypto assets versus AI, there's no argument that AI (even though it's in a bubble) is still more valuable per MWh than Crypto.
The fact my offer exists means a zero price target is dumb.
That seems like a lot of money to waste.
Your take was dumber than the zero price target.
I didn't pay much attention to the rest of it but I can't imagine it was any better.
(Anyway, in answer to your question: at time of writing, it's the 6th of February, though I don't know what else you might be expecting.)
But, regardless, even if you feel you have won, this time - for how long? It won't be the 5th of February for you forever!
TFA was on the 5th though.