Facebook stock pops as ad sales surge

money.cnn.com

13 points·sbashyal··8 comments

This surge may not last long as some 250M employee owned shares will flood the market next week.

Presumably (at least if you accept the Efficient Market Hypothesis), predictable information like that is already priced in to the stock.

The issue is its not a piece of predictable information - we don't know how many of those 250M shares will actually hit the market, as it is unknown what % of employees will sell versus hold. The market knows the event will occur, but does not know the size, and therefore significance, of the event as a result.

But the market is pricing in "some number of those shares will hit the market" already. Since it's equally likely that the market has anticipated too-high as too-low, there's no reason to believe it will cause the stock to sink. It's equally likely it will rise.

I'd be very willing to bet against it rising. That would be nearly unprecedented.

At what odds? This is an easy bet to make: just short-sell the stock or buy a put against it.

Markets are anti-inductive. http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/

It sounds like they announced a loss of $59m but this was adjusted for tax payments they made pushing them to $311m gain. FB still seems toxic to me - I wouldn't invest a cent of my own money.

It's good to see the Facebook stock finally hit bottom (for now at least.)

There's still so much revenue potential locked up in Facebook and if Mark can find a way to unlock that tastefully without alienating his user base they might have a bright future ahead of them.

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