How do we know it wasn't? OpenAI isn't a publicly traded company, and I guess no one who dares writing anything here actually knows how the numbers look on the inside, so for what we know, it could very well have been worse for OpenAI than Nvidia.
OpenAI is going to be competing for third or fourth place with Anthropic unless one of them pulls off a big capabilities or efficiency leap while remaining believably as good as the other top models. Google and xAI have advantages that the others don't, and are capitalizing on them like crazy. It remains to be seen whether xAI can compete with the Google hardware advantage, but they have economies of scale, differences in mission, and Elon's billions on their side, so it's turning out to be a very interesting race.
Sama could also finagle a funding rabbit or strategic partnership out of his hat and also have the next top tier model, amazing everyone again and keeping a plausible "best in class" lead for a while; OpenAI would have to be down for at least a year before I counted it out completely. It's not looking very pretty for them right now, though.
Genuine question.
But I’m not sure we can say they the big US companies aren’t doing foundational research anymore. I suspect a lot of it is just kept unpublished as a result of the intense competitive pressure, which is disappointing.
I guess there is one thing that Gemini is objectively better at than either, which is long context, and it does seem to be by an order of magnitude. What boggles my mind is why Gemini is still not as good as the open weight frontier models yet. If they got just to parity with that along with their existing long context and strong token pricing, they'd be able to take over the coding market. Are they just biding their time to make their move? Hard to discern.