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Stocks might go down if AI doesn't bring in enough revenue. The real risk seems to be currency depreciation though. The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro. I'm worried about what the next FED chair appointee will do. JPow has stuck to his principles so far.

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> The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro.

It's down 12% since a year ago, but that's largely a reaction to the tariffs. It's been fairly stable since July or so and has only seen a small dip (and partial recovery) in the last couple of weeks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR=X/

Tariffs cause a currency appreciation (they reduce imports, driving down the supply of the currency outside the country)

>what the next FED chair appointee will do

What do you think he will do, given he's one of 12 votes?

The admin wants to cut rates drastically. But the FED policymakers just voted 10-2 to not cut rates. So I worry the admin will try something crazy to force a cut.

Is it really seen as “the real risk” if it is something the current elected president very explicitly said for decades he wants to do? He does want USD to go down in value. He said it, repeatedly, openly. He made very clear why he went after Powell (that he himself reappointed). It’s more, exactly what we should expect than a risk no?

do you have link to article or vids where trump or admin talks about this?

It’s such a well documented and covered topic I cannot imagine that you’re asking that in good faith. But sure, I will send you that in a bit

Ha, no I'm serious, thx!

- video clip from the 80s in this video https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-str...

- 1987 newspaper ad in major newspapers where he complains about the strong dollar https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-foreign-policy-ad/ (and see the weak yen as something good)

- 2017 "the dollar is too strong and is killing us" https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-tumbling-trump-said-to...

- 2019 deleted president remark from whitehouse.gov https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/re...

- 2020, mentions of trump "long desired weaker dollar" https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2019/11/18/dollar-...

- 2024 arguing the dollar being strong is a tremendous burden https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-dollar-too-strong-...

- 2025 "you make a hell of a lot more with a [weak dollar]" https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-strong-dollar-sounds-go...

- 2026 "I think it's great [that the dollar is weakening]" https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/27/the-dollar-is-sinki... (this one is literally from this week)

If you want to understand the goal of the administration, read Stephan Miran's 2024 paper titled "A user's guide to restructuring the global trading system" (the author is the current chairs of "Council Economic Advisers", the paper is casually called Mar-a-lago accord...):

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...

The TL;DR is something like: use overvalued due to reserve status => devalue 40% via tariffs + threatening to withdraw military protection from allies who don't comply

You can find more sources and videos with fairly basic googling, such as multiple interviews from the 90s (or 80s?) with Larry king, Oprah, and way more, none of that is hidden

falling usd is a disaster in a consumption economy like ours. fuels inflation. makes investing in usd-denominated assets less attractive. it's not going to boost exports due to tarriff walls. there's no silver lining here.

> The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro.

False in every sense possible. For starters, the year is only a month old. Second, it’s been pretty stable for the past 6-7 months, and is only down 12% from a year ago - not 15%.

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