Who do we expect will replace Americas global leadership and will they really be better for everyone?
As for whether it is better for everyone, that question became a lot harder in just the last year. Who is «everyone»? And what do we mean by «better»?
With the US wanting to annex territory from its NATO allies, and engaging in extortionate tariffs, it is harder to argue that the US is good for Europe. Which is why Europe has already started to look eastward. Starting with a comprehensive trade deal with India.
What’s happening is good for Russia and China. Not so much for the rest of the world.
China alone has a higher population than Europe and the USA combined. I'd say that even if things got worse for Europe, to humanity it still constitutes a net benefit. Lives aren't of less value just because they're in a (gasp) communist country.
This goes for Asia in general. Korea, Japan, and China spent centuries fighting and making them the de facto super power makes it easy to resume the Korean war or try to overtake the (military wise) crippled Japan should they be emboldened by the faltering/collapse of NATO.
Are their global fishing fleets sustainable?
Where do the precursors for fentanyl come from?
That’s not great, but it is a positive. And certainly better than we feared a decade ago.
The world isn’t static.
As in any developing country, China has relied on cheap fossil fuels for rapid growth. Now, China is a global leader in reducing emissions, essentially blowing every other country out of the water.
> Are their global fishing fleets sustainable?
Is literally anything about the US sustainable?
> Where do the precursors for fentanyl come from?
You mean the legal drug that is absolutely 100% necessary for use in hospitals? Yeah, don't care.
It seems you're supremely focused on "China bad" gotchas as a desperate final gasp because you may be realizing that you don't actually have anything interesting to add to any conversation on any topic. Perhaps think more before opening your mouth.
New things need new words to describe them, I know people love to call bad guys "nazis" or "communists" and that everyone seems stuck with 1939 lingo but come one. 1950s china isn't 1980s china which isn't 2026 china, yet they're all ""communists""
Authoritarian. Totalitarian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_fascism is an OLD term.
> Authoritarian. Totalitarian.
Yes these apply, but they're not synonyms of communism. The Iranian government is authoritarian, totalitarian and absolutely not communist
> Red fascism is an OLD term.
But surely you see how dumb this sounds? Fascism is by definition a far right moment, communism is by definition far left moment. By definition fascism is opposed to communism... Of course if we start using literal American propagandists buzzwords ("red fascism") as a basis for modern political discussions we're not going to get anywhere...
The Nazis weren't socialist. They appropriated the term as a propaganda tactic, a means of appealing to the masses. North Korea calls itself a democratic republic, but is obviously neither. One can't simply assume political labels to be correct. In terms of their actual policies and beliefs, the Nazis were vehemently anti-socialist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatism
This was their economic "Holy Bible"...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Charter_of_1927
If you really want a rabbit hole, compare the Labor Charter of 1927 to Project 2025 while assuming the free market rhetoric in the later is deliberate misdirection.
Yes, I know, they have moved away from historical communism, and it's more of a "brand name" than an ideological description. Still, it is their chosen name for what they're doing.
It's also why Democracy and unbridled Capitalism leaking into Hong Kong is problematic for them. Though, to be fair, Hong Kong is also why Shenzhen has been such a success for them.
It's essentially a dogwhistle to spot idiots. Anyone who says "China isn't communist" completely lacks even the most basic comprehension of ideological concepts.
Make of that what you will. Power isn't always tanks and soldiers. Sometimes its bureaucracy and contracts.
The lines are still being drawn, but its doubtful one single power will emerge.
But as a trade partner? China, markets love reliability and stability. Not every 4 years wondering if there will be another trade war for reasons unknown.
You'd be very surprised the amount of malicious behavior countries will ignore to allow trade. Look at Saudi Arabia.
Even with a "return to normalcy", the trade and military agreements being forged are permanently diminishing America's influence. Especially given that we're never more than 4 years away from this happening again.
Cooperation among the rest of the world is rapidly progressing in response.
Which faction that emerges as a dominant ever says "Oh no! We better stop using our advantage to improve our condition".
Apparently their worst offence so far was calmly outgrowing and out competing their peers while benefiting global consumers with he fruits of organized labor of their own society.
And I was just speaking of what I think about China, not saying the current US administration is any better. I don't think it will be there forever though.
When faced with credible threat of islamic terror in their country China implemented some harsh, systemic ideas about what to do with it.
I'm sure if they just started two wars in the middle east instead the western community would be way more lenient towards them.
China did what it though was the correct thing and the west happily classified it as racism and religious persecution.
However when the pandemic came China had zero restraint towards applying harsh measures on the bulk of their population regardless of race and relligion. And while their solutions are harsh and possibly incorrect is it really unique on the global stage?
US, the shining city on the hill, when faced with a problem of having inadequate social support systems to help the more recent immigrants decided that it will try to build concentration camps on the teritorry of one of their closest vassals. This can't be correct or humane solution either.
And when it comes to surveillance, China is on the forefront, but US and UK closely follow. What's different is that China does their surveillance overtly and tries to make it socially useful. I don't for one second believe that technologically Palantir and such are more than one step behind.
But that doesn't make what China does better in any way. And those millions of Uyghurs they locked up couldn't possibly all be terrorists. That makes it racism and religious persecution.
Ps how is Cuba a vassal state of the US? When you speak of a concentration camp I assume you refer to Guantanamo?
> And those millions of Uyghurs they locked up couldn't possibly all be terrorists.
They were unassimilated population that China believed (while watching the west) might breed trouble. This alone makes the comparison with what US is doing right now pretty fair.
> That makes it racism and religious persecution.
Chinese was locking up all ethnic and religious groups during the pandemic. That might point to an explanation that maybe religion and race is irrelevant. Only safety matters.
If westerners did that it would be racism and religious persecution. But in a culture that gives a very little thought to both race and religion saying that might be just western projection.
> Ps how is Cuba a vassal state of the US? When you speak of a concentration camp I assume you refer to Guantanamo?
No. I'm talking about Salvador and a place built with US money where people that ICE has no idea where to send back are kept indefinitely. But I don't want to discuss that, to avoid whataboutism. I'm just telling it to provide background for evaluation how terrible were the things that China did.
Yes, they want Taiwan, but that’s a silly national pride thing. It would not really benefit them to take it by force.
We thought the same about Putin, and yet he went and invaded Ukraine.
We thought the same about Trump, and yet he went and abducted the president of a sovereign country.
Never underestimate nationalist BS or outright mental deficiency.
Xi is not facing those challenges. He wants Taiwan, but the Chinese play long games so he can wait.
He is facing other challenges, a lot of chickens are coming home to roost - chiefly the demographic collapse, the inevitable result of the one-child policy, but also the rise of wages leading other countries to be the outsourcing target, decades of selling out nature / the environment, a crashing real estate sector, brain drain...
Xi controls the politburo standing committee which is packed with loyalists. Loyalty is centralized and based in ideology. The state, functions as the embodiment of Xi’s ideology. There exists no independent power base. Military or otherwise. And this is the most important reason Xi is pretty safe. China’s elite is deeply invested in the system (wealth, family, careers). They lose everything if the party fractures. So the choice for those who don’t like Xi is between Xi and chaos.
In Russia power is split. Between oligarchs, security services, military and regional elites. All of which represent a threat to Putin’s power. Just look at Prigozhin’s mutiny: armed forces hesitated, elites stood back to see who would win, system didn’t close ranks. Institutions are hollowed out with no clear loyalty. And loyalty itself is highly transactional. Never ideological. There is zero cohesion in the elite. Zero.
It is also important to look at the histories of China and Russia respectively. In Russia power has _always_ been fragmented. Even under Stalin, considerable power was in the hands of criminal organizations and the communist regime had to co-exist with the criminal classes. In fact, during Stalin, they actually got a worse as the harsh political climate forced them to become more resilient.
And yet they got themselves into a demographic death spiral