OpenAI in Talks to Raise as Much as $100B | Hacker News Reader

OpenAI in Talks to Raise as Much as $100B

nytimes.com

18 pointsxnx11 comments

The company has done nothing but raise money off of tech that can be mathematically described as a magic trick. Its a literal scam.

They've built one of the most successful products in the last decade. It has significantly changed jobs like software engineering in the span of 9 months.

Successful by what metric?

Surely not money, because why else would they be raising again and again and again to plug their cash outflow?

Because, fundamentally, their biggest competitor is Google. A company with a market cap north of 4 trillion. If OpenAI does not spend hundreds of billions of dollars on datacenters, people will migrate to Google, little by little, and OpenAI will became a new Netscape story. A good product eliminated by an incumbent with infinitely deep pockets.

People will migrate to Google in light of OpenAI's inability to build anything that makes people want to stay with OpenAI, wouldn't you say?

And, given we're here on HN, have we thrown words like "moat" and "risk" around?

If OpenAI is incapable of building anything that can't be easily copied by a third party, what's their justification for existing?

> If OpenAI is incapable of building anything that can't be easily copied by a third party

They can build better models, but for that they need a lot of compute and that's where the billions go. These better models can't be easily copied by a third party, because that third party needs to also throw billions at the problem, and billions don't grow in trees.

People are gonna move to google anyway, because Google can keep the gravy train running for much much longer. OpenAI's business model is totally reckless while Google is a cash rich company.

Changed yes, but for the better?

"Just another 100 billion and then we'll have [AGI | replaced all software engineers | cured cancer | INSERT LOFTY IMAGINATIVE HYPERBOLE].

This time for real!

Trust me, bro!"

Can we stop already? we've demonstrated sufficiently that all known architectures lack the required indicative bias for what the openAI charlatans are Hucking. Sure if you scale a dense feed forward neural network enough it can do vision just fine, but the lack of inductive bias means the model becomes so inefficient that you will _never_ be able to extract any net gain from it.

So it is with transformers. Fantastic ontological cartographers, but not cognitive / logic engines like promised.

Ponzi

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